As the prospect of early general elections grows, it is more than likely that President Donald Ramotar will be the PPP’s nominee for the presidency but with a new-look team.
Analysts say that the PPP would be hard-pressed to find a new candidate at this point and given its weakened and sharply falling support at two consecutive elections, the ruling party would not want to risk a contest in the party for the presidency. It would also have to deal with the embarrassment of dumping its candidate just after three years. This is despite the fact that Ramotar delivered the worst result in the party’s post-1992 history, leaving it without a majority in parliament.
General Secretary of the party Clement Rohee is seen as the only possible, viable challenge to Ramotar but analysts say the party would be unwilling to risk what could be a bruising battle between two of the senior leaders of the party. In addition, Rohee is seen as having a largely negative image outside of the party and would be even less able to draw new supporters to the party. He would also be a figure around whom the opposition would be able to mobilise its supporters.
With around six months to likely general elections and less if the PPP/C government decided to pre-empt the planned opposition no-confidence motion against it, analysts say that if Ramotar is retained the party will need a ticket with new faces. This would be akin to the 1997 platform when the party introduced the A team with Bharrat Jagdeo as part of the troika.
Sources say that once Ramotar is at the top of the ticket it would spell the end of the long-running tenure of Sam Hinds as prime ministerial candidate as the party would need to shake up the configuration. Aside from several months as President, Hinds has served as prime minister since 1992. Once thought of as a shoo-in this time around on the presidential ticket, Natural Resources Minister Robert Persaud has attracted a lot of negatives in the public in recent years as a result of his performance in his portfolios and also because he is seen as being Jagdeo’s choice. Analysts say Persaud has also had frayed ties with several colleagues both within Cabinet and the PPP and this would likely work against him.
Housing Minister Irfaan Ali is a possibility for inclusion on the ticket but is seen to be in Jagdeo’s sphere of influence. A safer prospect would likely be Sport and Culture Minister Minister Dr Frank Anthony who would be seen as not rocking the boat.
Party insiders suggest that one of two women could be considered for the number two spot: Education Minister Priya Manickchand or Foreign Affairs Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett. Manickchand would bring gender balance and outspokenness to the ticket but analysts say her government-inspired attack on former US envoy Brent Hardt at the reception celebrating American independence was not well received in the party’s financing centres in New York. She also racked up negative comments here.
Aside from gender balance, analysts say Rodrigues-Birkett would have the added appeal of attracting support from key Amerindian communities in the northwest. The Amerindian vote is seen as increasingly crucial and could tip the balance in her favour.
Another key question the party faces once an elections timetable is set is the likely role of former President Jagdeo on any campaign. Analysts say there are divided views in the party on this.
Some believe that Jagdeo was responsible for the party falling below 50% at the 2011 elections while others believe he remains the most popular figure in the party within the PPP constituency. Sources say Jagdeo himself would want to be a key part of the campaign considering the high stakes. Were the party to lose or to have its support fall even lower that would jeopardise the interests of many of his key allies in the private sector who have been set up in lucrative businesses.
Amid the talk by Rohee and others of a national democratic front for any elections, observers suggest that party would be scrambling to mend bridges with influential figures like former House Speaker Ralph Ramkarran and others considering the depleted ranks of party stalwarts and the view that Jagdeo’s tenure has separate the party and government from the legacy of the Jagans.
