Dear Editor,
A new opinion poll out over the weekend shows NY Senator Hillary Clinton leading all opponents for the Democratic nomination as well as beating her Repub-lican opponents to win the presidency. NY-based Guyanese are backing Hillary’s candidacy for president.
Guyanese have signalled their intention to donate to her campaign. Some Guyanese businessmen in Richmond Hill have already announced plans to raise funds for her with some volunteering their backyards for BBQs.
Hillary’s prospect of winning the Presidency is good. She holds an unassailable lead over her opponents.
As a former First Lady, she has name recognition coming from her husband, Bill, who served as president from 1993 to 2001. A poll shows that 91% of the nation knows her. The same poll shows that Barack Obama, an African American, who is considering a run for the presidency, is only known by 71% of the nation.
A separate poll conducted by Newsweek magazine shows Clinton topping Obama 55-35% in a match up for the party’s nomination among Democratic voters. She beats John Edwards (2004 vice presidential candidate) 62-29%. Obama is preferred over Edwards 46-39%.
A different poll to test support for all the aspiring candidates shows Clinton leading Obama 48% to 19% with John Edwards trailing at 13% for the Democratic nomination. Other candidates are in the single digits. It is my view that Clinton is not expected to face much competition except briefly from Obama. In fact, Obama, a neophyte, would also not last very long in the campaign. He is green having served as a Senator for only two years. The others would drop out from the campaign very early. Clinton would win the nomination handily and the party would not be fractured.
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain leads former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani 32% to 23% with five others trailing. A different poll shows Republican voters prefer Giuliani over McCain by 48-44%. But it is my analysis that McCain will win the nomination.
The Newsweek poll tested support for several match ups between the Democratic and Republican candidates. Hillary beats McCain 50% to 44% with 6% undecided.
Obama beats McCain 48-42% and Edwards bests McCain 48-44%.
Against Giuliani, Hillary leads 49-46% and Obama lead by 47-44%. But Edwards lags behind Giuliani 46-47%. In other match ups, Demo-crats win by a landslide.
In a poll conducted in the state of Iowa which will hold the first primary on the road towards the nomination, Clinton is at fourth place polling only 15% support which trails Edwards 25%, Obama 17% and former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 16%. The Iowa primary is a year away and by then Clinton should be better positioned to win big. I should note Clinton has registered an improvement of 5% in Iowa from a month ago when another poll showed her with only 10% support. Obama who was at 23% has seen a 6% drop in his support.
Guyanese and other Caribbean Americans back Hillary because of their love and respect for her husband. They want another Clinton in the White House. As one Guyanese indicated, “She’s a lot better than Bush and Giuliani and a lot of the other Republicans vying for the post. I’m hoping for Clinton”.
The biggest difficulty facing Guyanese and Caribbean Americans is a possible split vote between Obama, an African-American, and Clinton. But most Caribbean Americans don’t give Obama much of a chance of winning the nomination and expect him to drop out of the race by the time the primary is held in NY.
Caribbean Americans feel Hillary has a better shot of winning the Presidency against a White Republican such as McCain or Giuliani, as the polls show.
Guyanese raised a lot of money for Hillary during her first run for the Senate in 2000 and again for her re-election last year. They will do it again to send her to the White House.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram