Dear Editor,
Your editorial (Dec 13, ‘Iowa’s dark horses’) is an excellent analysis on the current state of the campaign to choose a nominee for each major party in the US presidential election. Democrat (D) Barack Obama and Republican (R) Mike Huckabee were considered as long shots in winning their party’s nomination. Only a month ago, Hillary Clinton (D) and Rudy Giuliani (R) had unassailable leads nationally in polls to win the nomination. But Clinton is now in a statistical dead heat with Obama and Giuliani is in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee.
A month ago, Clinton was also leading Obama by at least 20% in opinion polls in Iowa, the state that will hold the first primary contest. Mitt Romney was leading the Republican flock by at least 15 per cent. Now Obama is ahead of Clinton who is also in a dead heat with John Edwards. And Huckabee is ahead of Romney with John McCain and Giuliani close by.
I believe that Clinton will close the gap with Obama and prevail comfortably. I find it hard to believe that Iowa voters will choose someone (Obama) who is less experienced than Clinton and who has no chance of winning the presidency. As my Congressman Greg Meeks said, “Obama is a good candidate but only Clinton has what it takes to beat any Republican.” Also, Clinton has name recognition and her husband, Bill, has been campaiging hard for her, especially among Black voters among whom she has lost a lot of support to Obama. Obama and Edwards will have close contests for second place. But since Edwards has a better ground organization, in spite of what the polls say, I think Edwards is likely to edge out Obama. If Obama wins Iowa and goes on to win New Hampshire a week later, which the polls are also suggesting, and if he also wins in South Carolina where he and Clinton are in a dead heat, then Clinton’s chance of becoming President will be over. I still believe that Clinton will win the nomination.
On the Republican side, I think Huckabee will barely prevail because he has the religious right backing him along with volunteers from the churches telling voters to support him. Although the polls have McCain trailing the flock, I will not rule out McCain doing well because of his experience and political skill. I think the Republicans will finish close to one another. It is too early to tell who will win the Republican nomination. But I don’t think it will be current front runner Huckabee, because I don’t think Americans are ready for a preacher in the White House. My bet is on McCain, although Giuliani seems to be the favourite right now.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
