Dear Editor,
Clinton Urling is confident that “Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee” (SN Dec 30 2007) in his letter in response to my argument that Hillary Clinton will be nominee. It may be that Urling is not up to date on the polls. The latest poll conducted by the respected Des Moines Register newspaper in Iowa (read on the major news network on New Year’s evening) still shows Obama ahead of Clinton. But the poll (as commented on by news anchor Tim Russert of NBC News) has a disturbing revelation – 5% of voters who plan to vote in Iowa’s Democratic caucus on Thursday are crossing over from the Republican Party and they are voting Obama. Here is a question for political analysts – Why are Republicans supporting a Democrat and an African-American Democrat at that?
Last summer, I made a point to friends that if I were a Republican political strategist, I would advise the party to finance and support Obama and other challengers to Clinton in order to divide the Democrats and make it easy for the Republicans to win the Presidency. Incidentally, I made a similar comment about the recent Trinidad elections when I was asked what advice I would give to the PNM if it wanted to win re-election. My response was if I were an advisor to the PNM, I would fund the newly formed COP (an offspring of the UNC) to split the opposition vote. On the U.S election, I do not know why Republicans are backing Obama but I am curious to know why they are backing him. What I do know as a serious student of American politics is the Republican party is not known for being friendly towards Blacks or other minorities. But perhaps Republicans have turned the corner and are now embracing ethnic minorities although I seriously doubt that.
On the Iowa caucus, the projection of the Des Moines poll was right in the last Presidential contest. I have no reason to doubt the poll’s findings that Obama would win there. But I do not think polls will be able to capture last minute changes in voter preferences for the candidates. And opinions do seem to be changing by the minute. That is why I still think Clinton will win. I have indicated that if Clinton loses the first three Presidential contests, she is finished and Obama will go on to win the nomination. Nationally, the two are statistically tied in various opinion polls and beating all the Republican challengers except John McCain with Clinton polling higher numbers than Obama. But McCain is trailing his challengers in his party and it does not appear he will get the nomination although I am still putting my money on him. Rudy Giuliani is ahead of his Republican rivals in popular support but trailing badly in the Iowa caucus. Democrat John Edwards was shown in a recent poll beating another Democratic candidate, populist John Edwards, was the only candidate to beat all Republican challengers.
It is important to note that these poll numbers keep changing regularly. So while one candidate was doing well one week, his or her political fortune changes in another week. It was just a month ago that Clinton was a shoo in in Iowa as well as in winning the nomination. Now she is struggling to stay afloat.
The Democratic contest has seven candidates. I believe two of those will drop out of the race after the Iowa vote and one more will quit after the New Hampshire vote next week. I believe all three will endorse Clinton by the end of February if not sooner. I also believe Edwards will abandon his candidacy the beginning of March and back Clinton if it appears he cannot win the nomination. Obama will also do the same if he cannot win. On the Republican side, there are six candidates and their battle will go on till the end of February when one candidate is likely to emerge as the winner.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram