Dear Editor,
It appears from recent polling data that the Democratic Party may very well choose its first African-American for its candidate for the November Presidential contest. Senator Barack Obama is almost neck and neck with Senator Hillary Clinton in national opinion polls in popular support and is leading Clinton in several states that vote later this month. More early victories in primary contests could give Obama the momentum to give him the nomination in the summer. But I am still putting my money on Clinton as “the comeback woman” who will narrowly win the nomination.
Obama is giving Clinton a tougher fight because “the Black vote” and the Black celebrities and businessmen have all but abandoned the Clintons (80% Blacks now back Obama with only 16% for Clinton). Until two months ago, Obama was more strongly supported by white voters than by black voters. This was partly because of the loyalty to Bill Clinton amongst black voters and black Democratic machine bosses. But now, they want one of their own to be President. But African-American voters have to be careful that they don’t overplay the race card that would drive Whites away from Obama. One should keep in mind that Obama was victorious in 96% White Iowa. He ran a close second in 96% White New Hampshire and he is doing extremely well among Whites nationally.
African-Americans see Obama as having a chance of winning the nomination and understandably they have jumped on his bandwagon. My African-American students have been trying to convince my teaching colleagues to vote for Obama when only a couple months ago they urged to vote for Clinton. Many African-Americans feel it is time for the first “Black President” and are rallying behind their own. I should note that Obama is not presenting himself as a Black candidate or as the first Black President but as America’s hope. Also, I should note that when Obama first announced that he was running for president, he was given little chance against Clinton who was the Democratic front-runner. Clinton had a massive war chest of money, much more experience and the backing of her husband (the still hugely popular) Bill Clinton. But Obama has managed to now raise more money than Clinton and earn higher approval ratings. His appeal is his relative youth, charm, charisma and the sense that he offers hope.
Obama is now leading Clinton in Nevada and in South Carolina in recent polling. Most Black voters, who were overwhelmingly supporting Clinton a few months ago, have now crossed over to Obama. Some Hispanic voters are also shifting over to Obama. And the White vote is almost equally divided between Obama and Clinton and a tenth of the White vote is going to John Edwards who has negligible support among Blacks and other ethnic groups; Edwards has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Asian-Americans (including Indian-Americans and Indo-Guyanese) heavily support Obama although in Illinois, Obama’s home state, Indian Americans are backing Obama and have raised considerable funds for him. But in New York and New Jersey, Indian-Americans are backing Clinton whose husband is very close with Indian businessmen and the former President has traveled to India regularly since leaving the White House.
Obama is a refreshing candidate. He has shown himself to be adept in politics and to be a good candidate, not one who is raging in controversy unlike previous Black candidates. He has brought a fresh face and new thought into politics. He wants to introduce a new kind of politics that would unite Democrats, Republicans and independents and end the politics of destruction and stalemate that characterize Washington. And it is not impossible for him to win the nomination although it is too early for me to give an assessment whether he can win the Presidency. Other pundits says he can win the Presidency if he wins the nomination. As a serious student of American politics and a pollster, I haven’t reached that conclusion as yet. But I can say Clinton could win the Presidency if she wrests the nomination.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram