Dear Editor,
As I wrote (08.01.19) Hillary Clinton should not be underestimated in the US Democratic presidential campaign which is being held to choose a nominee for the Fall election. Although opinion polls had Clinton behind Senator Barack Obama in Nevada, she came from behind to beat Obama 51% to 45% on Saturday. Clinton now heads to South Carolina where she is trailing Obama in popular support according to the polls. I do not rule out another come from behind victory of Clinton in that state.
So far Clinton has come from behind to defeat Obama in New Hampshire and in Nevada. Obama defeated Clinton in the first contest in Iowa where many Republicans crossed over (allowed in this state) to the Democratic contest to vote for Obama possibly to stop Clinton from getting the nomination. Republicans see Clinton as a formidable candidate who will be unbeatable in the general election in November and have been gunning to stop her. But Clinton is a fighter and is determined to win the nomination and I think she will win in spite of the strong challenge from Obama who is tied with Clinton in popular support (but more likeable than Clinton) nationwide.
According to exit polls, women and elderly voters have been the backbone of Clinton’s victory, while Obama has attracted younger and first time voters. Obama has been winning more male support than Clinton. Polls say Clinton has been getting more White support than Obama while Obama has been getting more Black support than Clinton. Hispanics and Asians have also been going for Clinton. In Nevada, two-thirds of Hispanics and most Asians voted Clinton while 80% of Blacks voted Obama. In SC, 86% of Blacks are expected to back Obama and Blacks make up half of the voters. This makes a Clinton come-from-behind victory almost impossible in SC. But if more Blacks support Clinton, she can beat Obama there. And if Clinton beats Obama in SC, it will set the stage for her to win the nomination sooner rather than later.
After SC, comes Florida where I think Clinton will also win although polls show a statistical tie. And then New York votes on Feb 4.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram