Dear Editor,
Your editorial “Political Surprises” (08.01.24) is excellent showing the outstanding quality of editorial writers in your staff. It is right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls and political pundits were wrong in their assessment of some of the Presidential contests in America to choose the nominee for the two main parties. But I should note that the polls got it right in the first contest when they predicted that Senator Barack Obama would prevail over his other democratic opponents and Mike Huckabee would defeat his Republican colleagues. The polls were wrong with regards to the next Democratic contest while they were mostly right with regards to the Republican contests.
Months before the first contest, polls had Rudy Giuliani as the front runner easily winning the Republican nomination and even defeating his Democratic challengers for the Presidency. On the Democratic side, polls had Senator Hillary Clinton with an unassailable lead over Senator Barack Obama and John Edwards. Obama picked up steam and raised more money than Clinton, posing a serious challenge to her front runner status. She almost got knocked out of the contest by Obama but fought back and is now likely to win the nomination although all pundits (except myself) are saying Obama has a better chance of winning the nomination as well as of becoming President. The pollsters and pundits failed to pick up how much people were fed up with the status quo and wanted change. So a lot of voters went against established candidates and the polls did pick up the voter mood in the first contest.
In Iowa, the polls did predict that Mike Huckabee will win the Iowa caucuses because of his appeal among Evangelical voters who make up about a third of the voting population of the state. They also accurately predicted that Huckabee was behind in every other state and their assessment has been right. They also predicted that McCain would win in New Hampshire and Florida, two key states. And they predicted that Mitt Romney would win in Michigan and Nevada. The polls also predicted that Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani would not win any race. Thompson dropped out last week. I had told my colleagues last weekend that Giuliani would lose in Florida and fold up endorsing McCain with the hope that he can get a Vice Presidential berth. Initially I thought McCain would accept Giuliani as Vice President but that looks difficult now.
On the Democratic side, the polls predicted that Obama would win in New Hampshire and Nevada but Clinton came from behind and won as I had analyzed. Clinton had no chance in South Carolina and as such folded her campaign and went to Florida where she has won big. So now, Obama has won two major contests and Clinton four major contests. Polls still have Obama and Clinton in a dead heat nationally. Although Obama has picked up big endorsements of respected leaders and elders of the Democratic Party, I still think Clinton will prevail against the odds. I had said from the outset before the first contest that McCain and Clinton would be the nominees in the general elections and I have not shifted from that conclusion although almost all other pundits have seen the races differently.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu BIsram
