Dear Editor,
This Tuesday in America, party members from some 22 to 24 states go to the polls to choose delegates who will get together in the summer to approve the nominee for their party to face off in the general election. No candidate will be able to lock up the nomination on Super Tuesday, as it is called, although John McCain will have an unassailable lead in the Republican Party forcing Mike Huckabee to drop out. Mitt Romney will go on for a few more contests before he also withdraws giving the nomination to McCain.
In New York, which votes this Tuesday, where most Guyanese-Americans are settled, polls show Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain ahead in their parties. Generally speaking, Guyanese voters are divided in their loyalty in the Democratic Party with most Indo-Guyanese voting for Hillary Clinton while most Afro-Guyanese are going for Barack Obama. Those who plan to vote for Clinton say they believe she is more prepared than Obama to lead America.
Nationally, polls show most Hispanics and Asians supporting Clinton with Obama getting about 25% of the White votes and 80% of the Black votes. Of 22 Democratic contests, polls show Clinton ahead in 16 and Obama ahead in 2 states with one state a tie and three other states dead heats.
On the Republican side, John McCain is leading in 22 states and Mitt Romney in two states with some of the states close. Some 1700 delegates are up for grabs in the Democratic contests. Some 1023 delegates are in play for the Republicans.
Many Super Tuesday contests are very close and could go either way especially in the Democratic battle for the nomination. Obama, for example, has been picking up steam especially with high profile endorsements (including from the Kennedy family, Governors, Mayors and Senators) this week. He is expected to do a lot better than polls suggest. In Massachusetts, for example, one poll has him with only 22% support. I think he will poll in the 30s. In Illinois, Clinton is polling 22%. I think she will poll higher as she would also in Georgia where the poll gives her 25% and Obama 52%. In Georgia, African Americans account for half the voters with 80% voting for Obama. In Missouri, Obama has 24% but I think he will do a lot better. In N.Y, Obama is polling 28% but I think he will poll much higher (because of high turnouts among African Americans) as he would also in New Jersey (32%), Minnesota (22%), Arizona (27%), Delaware (17%), Oklahoma (19%) and Tennessee (20%). Although a poll says Connecticut is a tie, I give Clinton the edge because of the women vote. In Kansas and Idaho, polls show a statistical tie, but I think Clinton will win comfortably. In Colorado, Obama is slightly ahead but I am giving the edge to Clinton because of the Hispanic vote.
Obama is giving Clinton a run for her money. But I believe Clinton will win over a thousand delegates on Super Tuesday, well short of the magic number (2,025) needed to wrest the nomination. So the Clinton-Obama battle will continue.
On the Republican side, McCain will do extremely well. A poll in Massachusetts gives him only 29%, I think he will do better. I expect Romney to win by a landslide in Utah, known as Mormon country (Romney’s faith) and in those states where Mormons are in large numbers. McCain will come close to sealing the nomination picking up over 750 delegates on Super Tuesday; he needs 1191 to win the nomination.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
