China’s incredible shrinking economy

By Eswar Prasad (Eswar Prasad, former head of the China Division of the International Monetary Fund, is professor of trade policy at Cornell University. )

ITHACA, NY — The World Bank recently announced that the Chinese and Indian economies are 40% smaller than previously estimated. Since these are the fastest-growing large economies, the Bank’s revision has clipped half a percentage point off world growth over the last five years, according to the IMF.

The new numbers set off a firestorm of debate, and have brought conspiracy theorists out in force. But when the dust settles, the new data may be less revolutionary than some people believe. They may also have the unintended benefit of shifting a key policy debate in a more productive direction.