The fifth anniversary of the United States-led intervention in Iraq has coincided with an uprising of the Mahdist forces particularly in Basra, spreading to other zones. Ironically, in the run up to this anniversary American official sources had been suggesting that conditions in Iraq were moving in favour of the Iraqi Government, and therefore in favour of the US position there. The surge was doing its work, we were told, and the strategy of creating links with Sunni forces was beginning to neutralize the efforts of Sunni insurgents, as well as those of forces like the Mahdists.
But in spite of President Bush’s assurances that the US stood behind the Government’s offensive, and even, in the course of the offensive, American air support, the result has been a stalemate and an agreement with the Mahdist leader Moktada to pull back his forces. And now we are told that the withdrawal has come after mediation by the Iranian government between the Mahdists and the Government.