Dear Editor,
It is perhaps useful to continue the commentary on global warming. Added perspectives may help in the overall discussion. The threat to Guyana’s coastal plain has been well defined, and this review looks at some alternatives.
Sea level elevation will be caused essentially by the melting of glacial ice, as opposed to that of sea ice which will have no effect. We are unlikely to wake up one morning to witness a flood of biblical proportions. Rather, one would be able to observe over the years, a gradual and creeping inability to remove excess water, either by use of pumps or natural drainage.
The window of opportunity for this relief will gradually diminish until a state of semi-permanent inundation is reached, with all its associated consequences.
These developments could lead to a forced relocation of up to a hundred thousand families. If this is done in an ad hoc manner the result will, of course, be a disaster. If, however, there is some planning and scientific application, the effort can be successful. Crucial to the exercise would be the need to sustain a viable agricultural base and standard of living. Some of the present rice and sugar cane cultivation may be salvaged, but that can only be estimated.
A new community established on higher ground has to contend with an entirely different soil type. Settlements in such areas have so far been modest, with little impact on the ecology and landscape, but large settlements need to carve out a bigger infrastructure of roads, housing, pure water supply, etc, and most importantly, a new agricultural base.
Agricultural enterprises, whether on savannah or forested soil, need to be tailored for potential growth. The model on which the developed economies was built allowed for increased productivity, while at the same time reducing the quantity of farm labour in general.
Higher productivity releases personnel for other industrial activity, including processing of agricultural products. Some flexibility is needed because the historical supply/demand inelasticity of farm produce can quickly transform today’s surplus into tomorrow’s glut. At the same time, the tight competitive nature of world markets would continue to be underpinned by the need for high quality at low cost.
Soil cultivation would involve a mix of savannah and forested soils, the former requiring a suitable model for large scale operations, and the latter, if denuded, presenting a challenge to maintain a topsoil viable for sustained farming activity.
Some issues are within the purview of civic-minded institutions, and should be discussed. Information and knowledge may, at a minimum encourage some pioneering effort. Future generations deserve nothing less.
Yours faithfully,
Patrick Scott
