House Speaker Ralph Ramkarran is the early favourite to succeed President Bharrat Jagdeo when he demits office, according to the findings of an opinion poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Asso- ciation (NACTA) last week.
He is followed by former PPP/C minister Moses Nagamootoo, although PPP supporters feel that he will not get the party’s nod as the presidential candidate next election, and given that Ramkarran would be the best candidate to succeed President Jagdeo. Minister of Agriculture Robert Persaud and PPP General Secretary Donald Ramotar were the other choices from the governing party.
In terms of popular support for the PPP presidential nomination, Ramkarran is way ahead of his potential rivals. He is also ahead of potential candidates for the presidency from opposing parties, leading Robert Corbin of the PNC/R by almost two to one and Raphael Trotman of the AFC by more than four to one. President Jagdeo cannot seek re-election in 2011 when his term of office ends.
NACTA is a New York-based polling and research group with no affiliation to any political party. Last week’s survey, coordinated by political scientist Vishnu Bisram, interviewed 890 people to determine popular support for a potential successor to Jagdeo within the PPP/C as well as support for potential presidential candidates from other parties.
According to the findings of the survey, Ramkarran and Nagamootoo are among the leading potential prospects within the PPP/C to succeed Jagdeo as president, earning strong favour among supporters of their party as well as from people of all races. Respondents say Naga-mootoo would make an excellent president but don’t feel he would get his party’s nomination because he has been bypassed for cabinet posts. Nagamootoo is well liked among grass roots and rank-and-file PPP Indian supporters, and he also has significant appeal among Africans and people of mixed race who back other parties and who view him as a fair-minded person who is flexible in working with leaders of other parties.
However, although Nagamootoo has strong political appeal nationally, people from across the political divide recognise that the PPP does not want Nagamootoo as its next presidential candidate. Many of his supporters indicate they prefer House Speaker Ralph Ramkarran to succeed Jagdeo when his term expires if their man does not get the nomination, thereby boosting Ramkarran’s poll numbers. In general, people feel Ramkarran’s long experience with the PPP and in parliament, his family background as well as his legal and other qualifications provide him with the requisite skills to be president.
Ramkarran enjoys strong support among the middle class, the business community and the educated professional classes. Also, many whose ethnic background is African or mixed race say they admire him for his integrity, decency, honesty, good character, independent mindedness and professionalism as Speaker of the National Assembly. They believe he would make an excellent president if given a chance.
Within the PPP, although Nagamootoo is not a competitor, Ramkarran faces stiff competition for the presidential nomination from Minister of Agriculture Robert Persaud and party General Secretary Donald Ramotar. They both enjoy support among a sizeable following of party, which feels both would make a good president, although many respondents express the view that Persaud is too young and needs more political experience to take on the presidential mantle at this time. Persaud should not be discounted as a potential presidential successor because poll numbers show him slightly ahead of Ramotar in popularity although trailing Ramkarran in terms of support both within the party as well as nationally.
With regard to presidential preference in the other ‘major’ political parties, Corbin is ahead of Winston Murray in the PNCR. Many PNCR supporters consider that Corbin should give way to younger leadership. In the AFC, Trotman is slightly ahead of Khemraj Ramjattan, but they both trail Ramkarran and Corbin in relation to popular support to become president.
The survey shows a small proportion of supporters who voted PPP/C in the last election indicating a preference for the AFC candidates because of dissatisfaction with the PPP/C’s handling of crime and economic issues.
It should be noted that the poll reveals that a fifth to a quarter of the population are undecided on who should succeed Jagdeo when he leaves office.
Many of them say that having experienced only the PNC and PPP in government since colonial times to now, a new party should be given a chance to govern Guyana. With the next election three years away, opinion and popular support could change by then.
Table showing % support for potential candidates for president to succeed Jagdeo
Potential Candidate Support Without Nagamootoo
Ralph Ramkarran 15 22
Moses Nagamootoo 14*
Robert Corbin 12
Robert Persaud 8 10
Winston Murray 9
Donald Ramotar 7 8
Raphael Trotman 5
Khemraj Ramjattan 4
Vincent Alexander 4
Others 2
Undecided/No Answer/
Don’t Know 20 24
The poll has a margin of error of 4%.
* Without Nagamootoo in the line up, support for other
PPP/C potential candidates and “Undecided” increases.
