Dear Editor,
The recent poll by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association should be serious food for thought for the opposition People’s National Congress Reform. The poll shows that if the elections were held today: the PNCR is likely to lose between 2 and 10 seats; the AFC will gain between 2 and 10 seats; and the PPP/C is likely to maintain around 56% of the popular vote. This is despite the fact that the same poll shows that the PPP/C government only has a 27% approval rating.
In the article ‘Ramkarran favourite to succeed Jagdeo’ (SN, 6.5.08) the popularity of possible presidential candidates was reported as follows:
Potential Candidate Support Without
Nagamootoo
Ralph Ramkarran 15 22
Moses Nagamootoo 14
Robert Corbin 12
Robert Persaud 8 10
Winston Murray 9
Donald Ramotar 7 8
Raphael Trotman 5
Khemraj Ramjattan 4
Vincent Alexander 4
Others 2
Undecided/ No answer 20 24
Of the people who offered answers 56% supported a PPP/C candidate, 31% supported a PNCR candidate, 11% supported an AFC candidate and 2% supported other candidates. This means that since the last elections the PPP/C has maintained its support and would emerge with the same amount of seats if the elections were held today. On the other hand the PNCR has lost about 3% support and if the elections were held today the party would lose 2 seats. The AFC has gained about 2% support and would increase its seats by 2 if the elections were held today.
The situation could get worse for the PNCR if other factors are taken in consideration.
1. The 4% support for Vincent Alexander is despite the clear indication by the PNCR that he and others are not considered part of the party. It can be concluded that if Alexander is to contest independently of the PNCR he will get at least 3 seats if the elections are held today. This brings the seats likely to be obtained by the PNCR down to 17.
2. At the last election it was revealed that Robert Corbin is a strong push factor for the PNCR. A large number of traditional PNCR supporters, especially in Linden, did not vote for the PNCR because of him. Therefore it is safe to assume that with Corbin as the PNCR candidate, not all of the 9% who expressed support for Murray would vote for Corbin. Assuming half of Murray’s supporters vote for Corbin then the PNCR will get approximately 20% of the popular vote or just 13 seats.
3. Assuming that defecting Murray supporters vote for an opposition party then the PNCR would obtain fewer seats than the combined opposition parties. The other opposition parties, including Vincent Alexander, will then be in a position to determine who the Leader of the Opposition is.
The sad thing about this situation is that the PPP/C government only has an approval rating of 27% but still it is attracting 56% of the popular vote. Something must be seriously wrong with what the opposition parties are offering the electorate.
The PNCR must now sit up and take stock and discuss in its councils the implications of the results of the poll. The party must urgently develop strategies to stem the tide of haemorrhaging support. These strategies must be implemented sooner rather than later in order to pre-empt persons switching support to other parties. For this reason I reject the grand plan that is being floated in Congress Place.