Nothing stays quiet in this sector of the globe for long. According to the Associated Press, President Hugo Chávez announced on Thursday that Venezuela would not tolerate a secession movement in Bolivia’s eastern lowland states. This follows the referendum held in that country’s Santa Cruz state on Sunday which produced a result overwhelmingly in favour of autonomy (not secession). Exactly what Mr Chávez would do about any secessionist movement should one surface, was not revealed; however both he and President Correa of Ecuador expressed concerns about the “contagion” spreading to their countries. In the case of Ecuador this would be a reference to the wealthy province of Guyas and its capital Guayaquil, while for Venezuela it would be Zulia state, currently administered by Governor Manuel Rosales of the opposition.
In his column last week Andres Oppenheimer said that in an interview with the Governor of Santa Cruz, the latter had insisted that the issue was not independence but greater autonomy within the framework of the Bolivian state. However, the Presidents of Venezuela and Ecuador have painted an altogether more lurid picture. According to the IPS, Mr Correa said last week: “Don’t let yourselves be fooled. What is happening in Bolivia is not an isolated development. It has the support of foreign countries that want to destabilize the region…”
For his part the Venezuelan President was quoted as saying, “The central plan by the CIA and its lackey in Venezuela is to take control of regional governments to carry out illegal referendums like the one held in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. But we will defeat that plan.”
Governor Rosales of Venezuela’s Zulia state responded indignantly to government accusations that he was harbouring separatist intentions, and was quoted by El Universal on Friday as describing these as an “absurd affront.” The daily did report him, however, as urging that President Chávez be removed “democratically and legally” from the presidency.
Last week Venezuelanaysis republished a report on a document submitted by former Venezuelan Attorney General Isaías Rodríguez in which he claimed that Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and the US Ambassador in Bogota, William Brownfield, were planning the “final offensive” against Venezuela. Along with other senior Colombian government figures they were alleged to have discussed plans to promote the secession of Zulia which would be done with the connivance of Governor Rosales, and while the Venezuelan army was preoccupied with that, to set in motion a plot involving certain major urban centres in which Colombian paramilitaries would play a starring role.
The very least that can be said about this little ‘Gunpowder Plot’ style fantasy is that President Uribe would hardly get Colombia involved in such a hare-brained scheme – more especially since it would have implications for his country becoming involved in a war with Venezuela.
However, obvious common sense will not dispel this little flight of fancy; it is all grist to the Miraflores propaganda mill which insists that the US intends to invade Venezuela at some point, and the country should prepare for this. Since even the Venezuelan government cannot deny the Americans are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, Colombia has been dragged into the story, more especially since the Colombian raid into Ecuador, the fall-out from which has done Mr Chávez’s credentials enormous damage.
Whether President Chávez seriously believes that the US will invade Venezuela or whether he is just creating an external enemy for domestic consumption, is something observers are not agreed on. What can be said is that he has been militarizing the civilian population with a view to training them for an “asymetrical war” with the United States, and has imported a large volume of weapons of various kinds. Citing the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as its source, El Universal last month reported that in 2007 Venezuela was the main importer of arms in Latin America and the ninth biggest importer in the world; its place was seventeenth in the rankings the year before.
Then there is the matter of the files found on computers in Raúl Reyes’s camp in Ecuador following the Colombian raid. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that US intelligence believed the files to be authentic, and said they indicated that the Venezuelan head of state’s ties to the FARC rebels were deeper than earlier thought. Among other revelations has been the one that FARC was invited to help train the Venezuelans in jungle and guerrilla warfare as preparation in the event of a US invasion.
Previously Colombian sources had said that Interpol, which had been asked to look at the files, had verified they had not been tampered with; however, the international police agency has as yet made no public pronouncement itself. In any event, it is unlikely that the files are fake, as the Venezuelan government has been consistently claiming. Whatever else, the disclosures have certainly put the Venezuelan head of state on the back foot, and he will be casting around for ways in which to regain his balance and resume the momentum. As such, the ‘secession,’ issue has possibilities. Significantly, perhaps, President Correa announced last week that he would reveal soon whether Ecuador will join ALBA or not; in other words, he will probably do so. It may be that the radical left leaders after all are seeking to redirect the objectives of what had originally been touted as an economic grouping.
Be that as it may; Mr Chávez has other problems, this time of a domestic nature. In November the Venezuelans go to the polls again, on this occasion for local government purposes when they will elect the mayors of 23 states and 335 towns. The opposition is hoping for some successes, since at the moment they hold only two states and a few municipalities. It must be said that they have still not got their act together, so to speak, but that notwithstanding, President Chávez must be aware that his ratings have declined and that he runs the risk of a protest vote in some areas, more particularly given that the electorate rejected his proposed constitutional amendments in last December’s referendum. Raising the bogeyman of separatism, therefore, could serve a useful purpose.
Mr Chávez’s former friend and one-time defence minister, General Raúl Isaías Baduel, was more blunt in his assessment. He told El Universal recently that the President was looking for international conflict in order to refresh his popularity and postpone the November elections.
As for Bolivia, the source of all this recent drama, the BBC reported on Friday that President Evo Morales had agreed to a recall referendum to be held within 90 days. The vote of confidence would also include his Vice-President and the nine state governors. From his point of view it is probably a risk worth taking, and he would regard a vote of confidence, even with a reduced majority, as giving him some backing to pursue his reforms. It would not, of course, solve the fundamental political problems in his country.
While none of the above has direct bearing on Guyana at the moment, we need to keep a watchful eye on developments.
