Dear Editor,
I thank Clinton Urling for the confidence and faith he has shown in my polling and political analysis in letter captioned ‘Bisram usually gets it right’ (SN, May 16). He made reference to my analysis (December 2007) of the US presidential nominations and asked for my current views in light of the recent outcomes of the primary elections of the Democratic Party and what I feel will be outcome of the elections in November.
Firstly, let me praise Clinton for the civil tone of his letter which is quite unlike those of several others who recently set out to impugn my integrity and reputation. Clinton is right that I analyzed in my commentary last December that Hillary Clinton would win the nomination for the Democrats and John McCain for the Republicans. I came to that conclusion about Clinton based on conversations and interviews with Caribbean Americans and their views as expressed in the Caribbean media. For all analysts, Clinton was a shoo-in for the Democrats, as indeed all polls showed at the time. However, something went wrong and she was upset by Obama in the first of 56 contests in January in Iowa. She was further humiliated in February in what came to be known as Super Tuesday. After the Iowa loss, I penned she would survive and still win the nomination. Before Super Tuesday, Clinton had more pledged and superdelegates combined than Obama, although he had more victories than her. Urling felt Obama would win the Democratic nomination and go on to become the president. We held different views but respected each other.
After Super Tuesday, I penned Clinton was in trouble but still had a chance of wresting the nomination from Obama. However, Clinton began to fall behind in increasing numbers in the delegate count as Obama racked up a series of primary wins through March. After the Pennsylvania primary, I penned Clinton’s chance of winning the nomination was severely diminished. I am not sure if SN carried my letter but it was published in NY. After the primaries in early May, I penned another commentary that all signs point to Obama being the candidate. I was interviewed live by TNT TV 6 the morning after the May 6 primaries and stated that Clinton had virtually no chance of being the candidate. She just did not have the delegate count. Only if the superdelegates began to abandon Obama did she have a chance. But the flow of superdelegates has been in the opposite direction trending towards Obama. Why Clinton is not winning the nomination comprises an analysis that will fill a book.
I should note that although Obama is going to be the nominee, I still feel Clinton would be a stronger candidate. Indeed, voters told pollsters in exit polls and in regular surveys that they feel Clinton is a better candidate. Polls also show Clinton doing better than Obama in match-ups against Republican McCain. However, one poll out on Thursday by Quinnipiac University shows Obama besting McCain 47% to 41% and Clinton beating him 46% to 41%. These are national trends and do not speak to the actual way the president is chosen by electoral votes (EV) from each state. An analysis of the EV shows Clinton beating McCain in all of the swing states amassing a landslide in EV but Obama goes down to defeat to McCain in EV. Current polls are too early to give a real picture of the reality of the November election.
However, given the poll numbers and the history of voting trends in the US, there is a slight chance Clinton could convince delegates to switch to her at the Democratic Convention in August with Obama as Vice President. That chance is very remote.
Regardless of who is the nominee, the Democrats have a serious problem on their hands. In polls, one third of Hillary supporters say they will not vote for Obama if he is the nominee and will in fact switch to McCain. One fifth of Obama’s supporters say they will not vote for Clinton as the nominee and will vote for McCain. Also, 20% of Democratic voters say race matters in how they vote.
That is bad news for Obama who will have earned his way to the nomination. He is an excellent orator although I think he is ‘shallow’ on some of the issues. Voters should give him a fair and just hearing. He has better domestic policies than McCain. They should not vote on ‘race’ as we do in Guyana.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
