Dear Editor,
You are absolutely right in the editorial ‘McCain’s inexhaustible luck’ (SN, May 29) that the never-ending campaign for the nomination in the Democratic Party in the US is benefiting John McCain, the nominee of the Republican Party.
McCain started out as the favourite in early 2007 to win the nomination. But when Mayor Rudy Giuliani entered the race, he overtook McCain in popularity and McCain slipped down a large pack of contestants for the nomination. McCain lost early contests but did sufficiently well (barely winning New Hampshire) to remain in a viable position. In February, however, his campaign nearly collapsed because he ran out of money. But being the fighter he is having survived five years in captivity as a POW in Vietnam, he remained in the race. I never wrote him off and concluded at the time that he would be the Republican nominee because of my analysis of the role of ethnicity, regionalism, religion and class in American politics. The other candidates were deficient in various qualities of electability. Giuliani, for example, is Italian and Catholic and neither quality is acceptable in the South. Mitt Romney is a Morman and a shifting conservative and unaccepted in most parts of the country. Mike Huckabee is considered as too religious. And while Fred Thompson has all the qualities of electability and is liked by the wealthy, he did not gain traction because he was too well connected with the traditional conservative Republicans at a time when voters were looking for something different from usual. People wanted a centrist whom they can trust. And so McCain slipped in, though despised by the conservatives.
As your editorial correctly analyzed, McCain won primarily because of the in-fighting among the various brands of Republican in the contests and the division of the votes among the many candidates. McCain benefited from the first past the post voting system that rewards the candidate with a plurality.
Now that he has sown up the nomination with the requisite delegates, McCain is benefiting again by the division in the opposing Democratic Party. He is enjoying it all allowing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to destroy themselves in a battle for the nomination that will go on for a few more weeks. This year should have been an easy Democratic victory for the White House. But opinion polls are showing a very good chance for the Republican holding on to the White House though losing the House and Senate.
According to an average of the latest polls, about 60% of American prefer the Democrats to control the House and Senate. For the White House, McCain is slightly ahead of Obama and trailing Clinton in popular support in the average of national polls. A separate poll out on May 30 shows McCain besting Obama in the near 30 states he won in the Democratic contests by a small figure while Clinton betters McCain in those states. Clinton also bests McCain in the near 20 states she won in the Democratic Party by a huge majority while McCain betters Obama by a small percentage. Another poll out on May 28 showed Clinton beating McCain by huge numbers in three swing states – Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio while Obama is ahead only in Pennsylvania. The Democrats cannot win the White House unless they win all three states plus other swing states like Michigan and West Virginia, where the Republicans are doing well against Obama.
As you rightly put it, luck is riding McCain’s way. Obama appears set to be the Democratic candidate and although McCain is beating him in the electoral votes count by a landslide, today’s polls are too early an indicator of what will happen in November. Obama is a young, dynamic and formidable candidate who cannot be written off.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
