Dear Editor,
Your editorial “US presidential elections: First stage over” (SN Jun 11) is apt and the candidates have begun the battle in earnest.
As you pointed out, it was a long bruising battle for the Democratic nomination and it is now time for the party to get its act together and go on to win the Presidency to restore America’s standing in the world. But it will not be an easy contest and may even be more bruising than the battle for the nomination.
Senator Barack Obama has triumphed over Senator Hillary Clinton in the closest contest in the party’s history. It was an extraordinary campaign with two phenomenal candidates. Unfortunately, only one can win and Obama has won according to the rules established by the party.
As the editorial noted, the battle went down to the end of the primary season similar to the contest between Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy in 1980. However, while Kennedy chose to carry the fight to the convention in August of that year, Clinton has bowed out gracefully to give Obama a fighting chance to become the first African American President instead of her becoming the first Woman President of America. I should note that Kennedy had less percentage of the delegates than Clinton has now but Kennedy fought on dividing the party that would lead to a blowout by Ronald Reagan over Carter. Fortunately, Clinton has decided to end her contest and rally around Obama to assist him to win the Presidency. As she said: “Children today will grow up taking for granted that an African-American or a woman can, yes, become the president of the United States. Although we weren’t able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it has about 18 million cracks in it and the light is shining through like never before.”
As your editorial noted, Obama has won the nomination on a string of defeats while Clinton lost the nomination on a streak of victories. In other words, Clinton was gaining momentum while Obama was losing momentum. It is too early to assess the effect of this factor on the election outcome in November because right now polls in the US show a dead heat between Obama and Republican opponent John McCain; it appears that most Clinton supporters have crossed over to Obama. But opinion polls show Obama faces a stiff task in winning over Clinton’s deeply disappointed female supporters, not to mention her base among blue collar working-class whites (especially among less educated older folks).
I expect the race to remain a dead heat throughout the campaign right into voting day.
This is a Democratic year by all accounts and estimates and from opinion polls. Voters prefer Democrats over Republicans throughout the country. The Republican brand has been discredited thanks to President George Bush’s disastrous foreign and domestic policies. Polls show voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by double digits for the legislative branches of government. So Democrats will hold the Senate and House and even make gains. But the fight for the control of the White House remains a tight battle.
The fact that the Presidential contest is so close is a credit to McCain whose independence from the Republican right wing is deeply admired and respected by mainstream voters, especially independents. Obama has his work cut out for him.
Obama’s greatest challenge is to woo Clinton’s followers and independent voters. Unless he gets more than half the independents and 90% of Clinton supporters, it would be almost impossible to defeat McCain.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
