Dear Editor,
This is in response to a letter from Clinton Urling (SN 10-06) querying about the polls I made reference to in my letter in SN (08-06) indicating that Hillary Clinton was beating John McCain for the Presidency while Barack Obama was going down to defeat.
I was not referring to any specific poll but a particular statistical analysis of polls that was carried out by an expert whose method of analysis correctly predicted the outcome of the Presidential elections since he began doing it from the 1960s (New York Times June 6). It is unfortunate that Urling does not think highly of the NYT but it is the most reputable newspaper in the world. The NYT is not the same as the tabloid NY Daily Post or Daily News. The NYT is the most respected daily in America and is delivered throughout he country and in major world cities. I have seen the paper sold in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Sydney, Amsterdam, New Delhi, etc.
It is available on all international flights I took and in business class lounges at airports throughout the world. Academic researchers from around the world access the NYT archives for info on their studies. The NYT library as well as the NY Public Library are inundated with researchers browsing old copies of the newspaper. For many of my academic papers, I used the NYT as a source.
On the issue of polling, it is important for readers to understand that poll findings are not static. They change regularly and continuously. What is found today will not be the same next week. As Urling pointed out, there are dozens of polls being conducted in America on the elections. Some American polls have a reputation of credibility while others are less credible.
The latest credible poll out is from ABC News-Washington Post which reveals that Obama leads Republican John McCain 48% to 42%; those numbers are within the margin of error and as such a dead heat. But it is important to understand that the American President is not chosen by popular votes as in Guyana but by electoral votes assigned equalled to its Congressional representation. It is too early to identify a trend on which candidate has a better chance of winning a majority of electoral votes (270) to win the Presidency. On various measurements and an analysis of what is happening in the country, Obama is in the lead and McCain is the underdog. But this can change swiftly as has been found in earlier elections.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
