Dear Editor,
I write to clarify any possible misunderstandings by Clinton Urling (‘I am baffled that Mr Bisram would imply NYT infallibility,’SN 19.6.08) and others about a comment in my letter (SN 18.6.08) that Senator Hillary Clinton would beat Republican John McCain for the presidency whereas Barack Obama would not. Firstly, that was not my conclusion, as Urling said, but taken from a statistical analysis of polls conducted by a respected professor and published in the New York Times (5.6.08). And, secondly, that analysis is now outdated as new polls show Obama handily beating McCain.
In a critique of AA Fenty’s missive that Clinton was ahead in popular votes and Obama ahead in the delegate votes, Urling challenged Fenty to cite the sources where he gathered information. Urling cited a Time Magazine analysis that he claims did not show Clinton ahead in the popular vote. Urling is/was right. When the votes and Michigan and Florida are not included in the total, Obama is ahead. I cited the NYT analysis (5.6.08) showing that Clinton wins the popular vote when Michigan and Florida are included. I also made the point, which I reinforce now, that the popular vote does not matter. Obama won a plurality of the elected delegates and is supported by a majority of the superdelegates. When the two types of delegates are added, he has a majority of delegates. He has won the nomination according to the party’s rules and no one should take away from that achievement. Obama is the nominee and the candidate. We should now move beyond the argument of who has won the most votes. Obama is now a sensation in America and virtually all polls show him ahead of McCain. He is the favourite whereas McCain is the underdog.
Just a week ago, the race was a statistical tie depending on the interpretation of credible polls. Now Obama is blowing away McCain – which reinforces my argument a week away that polls are not static and that the polls would go up and down until they settle after the convention. I believe the race will enter the final stretch as a dead heat with Obama having the edge because of the excitement he has drawn around the nation as a youthful candidate seeking to bring change against a discredited republican status quo.
The latest Bloomberg/LA Times poll out on June 25 shows Obama with a huge 12-14% lead over McCain depending on the presence of other candidates in the race. Also, two separate credible polls (NBC News/Wall Street and ABC News/Washington Post) last week showed Obama with a 6% lead. Each poll had a 3% margin of error. So the polls could be interpreted as a lead for Obama or a tie depending on how you see it.
Some experts interpret the polls giving Obama a front runner status and McCain the underdog because 3% error margin is outside the 6% lead. Others interpret the polls as a tie; McCain, in theory, can be 3% higher and Obama can be 3% lower – a tie. So both interpretations – a lead by Obama and a tie – are correct according to interpretations of polls. I should also note that Quinnipiac polls conducted in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, three critical swing states, show Obama in the lead – a reversal from two weeks ago.
So, in sum, everything is going Obama’s way – the polls, worries of the state of the economy, the costs and casualties of the Iraq war, etc. This is now a race for Obama to lose and that is what I meant when I wrote McCain is the underdog. One should not underestimate McCain’s strengths. He has been written off before only to come back and silence his detractors.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram