Dear Editor,
Based on the latest findings of a tracking poll being conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA), it appears that the incumbent New National Party led by Dr Keith Mitchell has consolidated its lead over the opposition National Democratic Congress and Mitchel is likely to retain his parliamentary majority in a closely competitive election on Tuesday.
The two parties held their final campaign rallies on Sunday night with the NNP pulling a crowd that was at least twice that of the NDC. However, the election will not be so lopsided in terms of popular support nationally or in the individual seats. The NNP holds just a seven per cent lead in national popular support and closer leads in several seats according to the findings of a NACTA poll being conducted by Vishnu Bisram.
I have made several appearances on TV and the findings of the NACTA poll are being discussed nationally among supporters of both parties as well as in the media. Supporters of the NDC disagree with the findings and see a NDC victory on Tuesday night, while NNP supporters endorse the findings and expect a huge landslide majority.
While in theory, the election could go either way because of the closeness of the contests in ten seats (within the margin of error of poll), the NNP has the advantage to eke out a majority of these seats. The NNP has better organization and appears to have more resources at its disposal. But nearly half the voters are hungry for change.
Based on the findings of the latest NACTA tracking poll, the NNP is projected to receive nearly 52% of the total votes and NDC around 45%. The poll shows that NNP leads the NDC among new voters by 60% to 40%. The NNP’s strength has been among the youths who four months ago were backing the NDC. They appeared to have switched loyalty because the NNP has put up several young candidates; one candidate is a mere 22 years old and is giving the NDC incumbent a fight for his life.
He is referred to as the Obama of Grenada, exciting voters all over the island.
The exact number of seats each party will win is hard to predict because of the closeness of the contests in several seats. Some are a dead heat. But while the findings show competitive contests in some seats, the NNP has the upper hand because voters place more trust in the NNP than in the NDC. A majority of voters also feel that the NDC does not have anyone who is qualified to be leader of the government and they fear in-fighting for leadership should the NDC win the election. Mitchell is preferred over NDC leader Tillman Thomas for the position of PM. Thomas may not survive in his seat as he is a dead heat with the NNP challenger.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
