Dear Editor,
Your Sunday editorial, ‘Strategic mistake,’ (August 17) that focused on the gamble by President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia in launching a military attack on the breakaway province of South Ossetia, and which triggered the massive military response from Russia, was on target because “since April the Russians have been baiting the Georgians with a series of incidents.”
This is key to understanding what is taking place in Georgia: The Russians are looking to send a message that, though the Soviet Union collapsed almost seventeen years ago, Russia still possesses the military power and nuclear arsenal to allow it to turn back the clock on freedoms won by former Soviet satellite states.
In short, Russia is looking to make a comeback as a superpower after shocking the world back in the early nineties when its economy collapsed and the union followed suit. Today, Russia is awash in petro-dollars from high oil prices and lots of that money has gone into refurbishing its military for such a time as this.
Russia has also recognized that the current state of the world on economic and stability fronts is leading nations to change their views of the United States as the lone standing world leader. Some leaders are actually calling for an end to America’s world dominance.
America’s response has been to try and sustain the status quo by expanding its strategic economic and military interests, and it is this construct that it has led the way in helping former Soviet satellite states use their new-found freedom to become more integrated with the rest of the so-called free world, but especially neighbours in Europe.
But while Russia has no qualms about former satellite states enjoying Europe’s economic benefits, participating in Europe’s military agenda, such as joining NATO and allowing the installation of certain types of military equipment in close proximity to Russia, is a serious problem Russia would not countenance.
Can you imagine while Russia was making deep incursions into Georgia that a ranking Russian military official made it clear that Poland would also be attacked if it went ahead with President George Bush’s plans for Poland to become a base for certain Nato military hardware? Poland, like Georgia, is an independent, functioning democracy recognized by the rest of the world, so why would Russia totally disregard this known fact? Simple. Because Russia wants to re-establish itself as the ‘Old Bear,’ and if there is one thing that its invasion and beating down of Georgia has shown, it is that this retaliation was months in the making. It also sends a message, apart from the threat made by the ranking Russian general against Poland, that there are other plans on the Russian drawing board, and these will be implemented when Russia sees any opening and seizes it.
And to show how defiant and determined the Russians are, Russian troops are firmly entrenched in Georgia while US military personnel are making emergency deliveries in Georgia. Yes, there is a cease-fire agreement and a promise to withdraw, but why is Russia taking its own time complying?
The answer may be found in Russian President Medvedev’s comparison last week of Georgia’s President Saakashvili to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. He may have signalled to the world that Russia is of the same mindset as America, which led to the invasion of Iraq, removal of Hussein and the military occupation of the land for the last five years. Whether Georgia will be split in two like Germany was split after World War II is not yet clear, but the signs are ominous.
Georgia’s strategic mistake, therefore, has become Russia’s strategic mission and may yet become America’s latest nightmare. Can America, under a lame duck President, get Nato to help extricate Georgia from the grasp of the ‘Russian Bear’ or will Russia face down America before the eyes of Europe until America blinks? And if America blinks, what message does that send to Europe and the world?
In fact, what do Russia’s deep incursions into Georgia and bold threats against Poland mean for Americans who go to the polls in November? Will Americans use this crisis as a reason to vote for the more experienced Senator John McCain? Regardless of who wins in November, America needs wise and strong leadership if it intends to remain a viable player in a changing world.
But between now and January, next, when Bush demits office, his administration’s own short-term strategic response will determine whether America emerges a winner or a wimp in this Georgia crisis. What will be the American response?
Yours faithfully,
Emile Mervin
