–former democratic party chair
As the US presidential election draws nearer, former National Chairman of the Democratic Party Dr Donald Fowler says that race is close enough that the winner will be determined by how effective senators John McCain and Barack Obama ran their campaigns.
The elections would be the most expensive in conventional US elections history from the administrative and campaign levels with record fundraising and spending during the primaries. Race, Dr Fowler told Stabroek News could also become an issue that could change the views of a small group of voters and influence the outcome. He spoke to Stabroek News prior to the selections of the vice-presidential candidates: Joseph Biden and Sarah Palin.
A political science professor at the University of South Carolina and long-time political consultant, Dr Fowler said there is no question that the race factor is an issue and it could affect the votes of the independents. At the same time, he said some persons’ reluctance to vote for Democratic Presidential Candidate Obama because he is an African American is likely to be overcome by his charisma, talent and brilliance. “The race factor is real in American politics and could adversely affect his presidential bid,” he added.
Alternately Dr Fowler said he does not think that race would affect the votes of persons who voted for Senator Hillary Clinton during the primaries but there are some women who are disappointed that Clinton lost to Obama and would not vote for him. They also would not vote for McCain, the Republican nominee. Some other African American politicians would also not enjoy the same popularity as Obama because of personality differences.
The Democratic Party, Fowler said, is favoured by people of all races, particularly “Black and Brown” with sound backing from African Americans. “Routinely 90% of the African American vote for the Democratic party,” he said, adding that there are people particularly the independents who tend to harbour prejudices and the Democratic officials are sensitive to these. Stating that he was a Democrat who supports Obama and noting that he would get 98% of the votes in Guyana if Guyanese were to vote, Fowler said he does not think that a lot of people in the US give McCain credit for being as good a candidate as he is. The differences in generation and life experiences make him more popular among older people than Obama and older people tend to vote in higher percentages than younger people he said.
However, Dr Fowler said, “there are more young people voting this year than maybe ever but people over 50 vote in high percentages and Mc Cain leads… it is easy to look superficially at this elections in the USA and say that Senator Obama has got it because of the polls. That’s not the case. Senator McCain is a very resourceful person, a respected war hero, a respected senator with a lot more experience than Senator Obama and he enjoys support from older people.” He said too these elections would be the most expensive both from the standpoint of the candidates and the parties including the administrative and back-up systems and the campaign aspects.
Additionally, Dr Fowler said if the voter turnout in the primaries for the Democratic Party is any indication, the turnout in this general election will break all records both in numbers and percentages. He believes that close to 200 million people will vote. “We will have over 60% of the eligible voters which is very high for an American election. It was about 55% or 56% at the last elections. It was close to 60% in 1960,” he recalled. The problem that occurred in Florida in 2000 is not expected to repeat itself, Fowler said. He said since the Florida controversy both state and federal governments have spent a lot of money and put a lot of time and attention into improving the electoral process. Each state is responsible for the conduct of the elections and not the federal government.
Economy
With just a few exceptions, such as the Vietnam War in 1968, Fowler said that the domestic economy within the USA influences the outcome of most presidential elections. “The economy was going good but the war in Vietnam was considered very bad.” At present he said that many people thought that the war in Iraq might determine this election but it has receded in the minds of the American people and energy and the economy has taken the lead.
While every presidential election has its own unique qualities and characteristics, Dr Fowler said that the 2008 election has several characteristics that makes it different from others. It is the first since 1952 (more than half a century) in which there was not either an incumbent president or an incumbent vice president running for office from either party. Having an incumbent is an advantage because the candidate is better known, generally better financed and generally has better organized election machinery. “Neither party has the advantage of incumbency and this left it open,” he said. Another characteristic is that Obama is African American and neither party has ever had an African American as its presidential candidate. “That is adding a great deal of interest and uncertainty about the campaign,” Dr Fowler said, adding that “Whether you are for or against him, irrespective of the fact that he is African American, he is very charismatic and there has not been in the history of the United States a candidate who has gained so much popularity, so much attention and so much support in such a short period of time in running for the presidency. In that respect he is truly unique.” However, he cautioned that though Obama has attracted a lot of attention particularly from young people because of his great skills in using television and the internet his rise does not mean that Obama is going to win.
On the other hand, McCain is an attractive candidate as well. Dr Fowler noted that McCain if elected will be the oldest first-time president as he will be 72 by this year-end. President Ronald Reagan was older than that when he was elected for the second term. Fowler said too McCain has established deep, loyal and enthusiastic followers; many who are more experienced than Obama’s. As a former prisoner of war and a decorated war veteran, he is also seen as a hero. Within the Republican Party, he is seen as a maverick; doing things differently from a lot of Republicans. “All this makes this election different,” he contended.
A clear similarity between the two candidates is that both of them are willing to do things differently. McCain has opposed President George W Bush and his Republican colleagues on very basic issues such as immigration and he campaigned for its reform. Conversely, Obama has based his campaign largely on young people, raised money over the internet rather than calling for large donations and has raised more money than any other presidential candidate. “He has emerged from a very talented field of candidates much to the surprise of many people, much to my surprise and he is doing better than anybody expected him to,” Dr Fowler said. “Most people by this time assumed that Senator Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. She was clearly the favourite at the time. You could not expect someone so new, so young in such a strong field to emerge the victor,” he added.
McCain and Obama may have stylistic similarities on a number of national issues but they differ substantially on basic public policies including the war in Iraq, taxation, managing the economy and energy.
On voting patterns, Fowler feels that Obama would get the overwhelming votes of the women who supported Clinton during the primaries. “Women and white working Democrats are going to vote for Obama. I can’t promise you everyone will but the majority will.” There is also a possibility that some Red States (Republican leaning) would be Blue (Democratic leaning) and some Blue States would be Red following the elections, he said, noting that there are a dozen or more states that are so close in a presidential election that just a little bit of change can move a state from one colour to the other.
Virginia, next to Washington DC which last voted for a Democratic candidate in 1964 is likely to be change its colour due to changing demographics and which has in recent years been electing more Democrats to Congress and the state legislature. Other states which could change colour include Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio and Michigan.
Where does the Caribbean feature in the election? Dr Fowler said that there is a growing concern about the relationship between the US and the Caribbean and he believes that the next President would pay more attention to Caribbean nations because the war in Iraq would be resolved, the economy will have improved and that will allow the President more time to focus on this region. He said too Cuba’s ideology and foreign policy paralysed America’s policy toward the Caribbean and Latin America generally. “We have had this fixation, very strong dislike for Fidel Castro and anybody who was Castro’s friend became our enemy. That’s a strong statement but it is substantially true,” he said.
Fowler said the 1983 US invasion of Grenada was due to a perception at the time that President Reagan and his policy-makers were allowing Cuba to have too much influence on that territory. “There were many similarities between the experiences Grenada had in its first few years of independence that Guyana had,” he said, noting that “the reason the US invaded Grenada was because Cuba built a huge air force facility in Grenada that threatened the shipping lines out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic. There was a fear, a perception that Cuba was taking over the island and we invaded Grenada. Not that we had anything against the people of Grenada. It was based purely on the relationship between Cuba and Grenada.”
“Cuba, the Castros, the Caribbean and Latin American nations have influenced greatly our American policy toward individual nations, Grenada, Guyana, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. I believe and most people believe that now that Fidel Castro has stepped down and his brother who is now the President seems to indicate that he is willing to change and to be accommodating, that the relationship between the US and Cuba will change significantly in the next few years.” Fowler said that in turn, would give American foreign policy a different view of Latin American and Caribbean countries and improve the relationship between the US and the region.