Dear Editor,
With only eleven days left for the US presidential election, Democratic Party candidate, 47-year-old Senator Barack Obama, continues to enjoy a significant lead over Republican Party candidate, 72-year-old Senator John McCain in opinion polls across the country.
A CNN/ Opinion Research Corp Poll of likely voters, released on Monday, showed Obama with 50% support and McCain with 44%. Interestingly, 53% of likely voters had a favourable opinion of Obama, despite the wave of negative ads, smear campaign statements and the blitz of character assassination phone calls in battleground states by McCain and the Republican Party. Only 33% had a favourable opinion of McCain.
An ABC News/Washing-ton Post Poll on Tuesday had Obama at 54% and McCain at 43%.
Also on Tuesday, a CBS News Poll had Obama at 52% and McCain at 42%.
On Tuesday too, a Pew Research Center Poll had Obama at 52% and McCain at 38%.
And a World Opinion Poll conducted by Gallup in 70 countries with more than half of the world’s population, showed a 30% support for Obama and 8% for McCain among persons following the election.
All national polls had Obama at 50% or over which is, to all intent and purposes, a winning percentage.
A weakness of the polls’ samples is that they do not ably reflect the opinions of newly registered voters. According to an ABC News report on Tuesday, newly registered voters now constitute 11% of the total national electorate, the largest in history. And 73% of the new voters support Obama. Only 27% are for McCain. The vast majority are young people.
More good news for Obama came on Sunday when former Secretary of State and a Republican, General Colin Powell, endorsed Obama and said he will vote for him on election day. His endorsement did not end there. Powell strongly criticized the Republican Party for its mud-slinging campaign instead of focusing on the crises facing the nation. He questioned the judgement of McCain in selecting Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate saying “She is not ready to be President, which is what a Vice-President is all about.”
Several leading national newspapers have also endorsed Obama, to wit the Washington Post, the New York Times, the ChicagoTimes, the San Francisco Chronicle and the Miami Herald. Washington DC, New York, Illinois and California are already in Obama’s safe column, but the Miami Herald endorsement is significant since Miami is in the battleground state of Florida.
In the category of electoral votes which will decide who wins the election, Obama has maintained his winning lead over McCain. Obama has 286 electoral votes ( 192 safe and 94 leaning). McCain has 174 electoral votes (122 safe and 52 leaning). 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election, and Obama has exceeded that target..
The five toss-up states continue to be Nevada (5), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15) and Florida (27), a total of 78 electoral votes at stake. In Nevada, according to a CNN Poll, Obama is ahead by 49% to 45%; in Ohio, it is 50% for Obama and 43% for McCain; in Missouri (where Obama had an attendance of over 100,000 people at a campaign meeting, the largest in election campaign history), it is McCain 45% and Obama 44%; in Florida it is 48% to 45% in favour of Obama; and in North Carolina it is 51% to 47% in favour of Obama. All five are traditionally Republican states, as are several others in the Obama column. Even if McCain wins all five, Obama’s 286 (more than the 270 needed) electoral votes would guarantee him victory − if the figures hold up until Tuesday, November 4, and if voters continue not to be influenced by McCain’s character assassination campaign in this countdown period.
Actual voting has begun in 29 states and from all indications, voter turnout will be of historic proportions. An estimated 2.2 million had voted up to Monday. The majority were Democrats. There are 213 million eligible voters but traditionally, only about 50-55% vote.
Meanwhile, police departments in a number of states have announced that special security arrangements will be put in place on the night of November 4 when protests and demonstrations are expected as the results trickle in on TV and radio.
Yours faithfully,
Peter Halder
