Dear Editor,
Peter Halder in letter captioned ‘Signi-ficant lead for Obama’ (SN Oct 25) accurately paraphrases some of the poll standings of the contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. However, he left out many other important national polls also showing Obama with a huge lead and two polls (Associated Press and IBD) showing the contest a dead heat in popular support.
There have been almost 200 polls conducted in October on the contest by different polling outfits and Obama has been in the lead in all of them. Historians have pointed out that whoever has been in the lead the longest between the conventions and the election date goes on to win the presidency. This suggests that Obama will be elected President. The figures also lead to that inescapable conclusion.
The polls indicate that the margin of support between Obama and McCain varies up to 14% with one poll showing 13%, another 12%, another 10%, another 9%, etc, etc. The polls have shown all kinds of numbers.
I have not conducted any polls except some informal interviewing of voters in a few states. But I have been conducting my own assessment of the contest which I will release before election day.
Mr Halder gave readers poll numbers in five toss-up states. There are other polls conducted in those states also showing Obama in the lead with bigger numbers. In addition, Obama is also ahead in several other crucial battleground states not included in Halder’s letter. And Obama is also picking up steam in states that were not considered close in recent weeks giving him a real shot at picking them up, such as Georgia and Mississippi. Based on my own assessment, I do not think Obama will win all of these marginal states and the ones now showing close. I believe the contests will be closer than the polls are suggesting with McCain having a good chance to pick up a few of them. Nevertheless, Obama has enough of a lead in electoral votes in most of the states to win the presidency.
In states left out in Mr Halder’s letter, Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania by 11%, Virginia by 8%, Wisconsin by 14%, Montana by 4%, Indiana by 10%, New Hampshire by 10%, Colorado by 12%, New Mexico by 9%, etc. Any pollster looking at the numbers from the polls will recognize something is wrong. Some of these poll numbers are not in sync with political reality.
It is not possible to do an assessment of the hundreds of polls because pollsters do not tell readers how their polls were conducted and the breakdown of the different groups of people they interviewed. Thus, one cannot really evaluate how good or bad they are. Some of these polls will not be borne out by the actual election results.
For example, one poll says North Dakota is a tie. I think McCain will prevail. Another poll says Obama will win Indiana big. I think it will be a narrow victory for either candidate with the edge to McCain. I do not think Obama will win Virginia by 8%; it will be a closer contest.
I do not think the race is a dead heat right now, as two polls found. At the same time, I do not think there is a 14% margin in support separating the two candidates. I believe right now, Obama is leading comfortably and is on top in terms of electoral votes. All he needs to do is to let the clock run out because he is riding high.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
