Even as the world plunges into recession, there is one growth industry that gives no hint of slowing – Obama-watching. And even as the world’s eyes are on Mr Obama, as he puts together his administration, especially his economic team, regional political and diplomatic seers are scouring the tea leaves for signs of how the incoming government will treat with its presumptive backyard.
Historically, in times of crisis, the United States has tended to turn inwards. Now, the global financial crisis has given rise to concerns that trade protectionism, for instance, could be a response to some of the economic problems (the trade deficit, loss of American jobs, currency devaluation, etc) associated with globalization.
In the Americas, such concerns are very real, as a result of positions taken by Mr Obama during his campaign. Candidate Obama, for example, is on record as wishing to amend the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico and opposing the US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement negotiated by the Bush administration, because of human rights, labour and environmental issues. But some expect President Obama to move to a more centrist position, once in office.
Generally, however, Latin America (and the Caribbean) did not feature much during the election campaign, apart from Mr Obama’s position on Cuba, in the context of the Florida vote, which has already been discussed in this column.
To be fair, Mr Obama’s manifesto did reveal an intention, albeit relatively anodyne, to re-establish US leadership in the hemisphere by rebuilding links with allies and increasing aid to create economic security. Specific mention was made of providing debt relief to poorer countries like Bolivia, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay and St Lucia. Indeed, Haiti’s worsening plight is likely to lead to a plan for increased US support under the new administration.
More importantly, Mr Obama has already impressed with his commitment to dialogue, engagement and cooperation. There are consequently high hopes that tensions with Venezuela will be reduced, there will be a change in the US attitude towards Cuba and America will re-engage with the rest of the hemisphere, even if on an incremental basis.
Since his election, Mr Obama has spoken by telephone with Mexican President Felipe Calderón and Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who have both invited him to visit their countries. Mr Obama has reportedly accepted the invitations, without committing to specific dates. Early engagement with these two Latin American powerhouses is logical: with Mexico, on the USA’s southern border, from the point of view of narco-trafficking, security and migration in particular, and with Brazil, the colossus of South America, from the perspective of cooperation on regional stability, trade, agriculture and biofuels, for example.
Dan Restrepo, one of Mr Obama’s principal Latin American advisers, is perhaps the key to the incoming administration’s hemispheric policy. The intellectual author of Mr Obama’s speech to the Cuban American National Foundation in Miami on May 23, on relations with Cuba and Latin America, he is a strong believer in filling the void left by the Bush administration’s neglect of the region and has developed the mantra-like statement, “What is good for Latin America is good for the United States.”
Another interesting factor is the recently released report by the Brookings Institution, ‘Rethinking US-Latin American Relations,’ which makes the case for replacing the Bush administration’s “episodic engagement” with Latin America with a more structured and mutually beneficial one, within a framework of partnership, strategic cooperation and improved relations based on non-confrontation, non-intervention and mutual respect. In this regard, four areas for action are proposed: “1) developing sustainable energy sources and combating climate change; 2) managing migration effectively; 3) expanding opportunities for all through economic integration; and 4) protecting the hemisphere from drug trafficking and organized crime.” The report also recommends a new approach to resolving the troubled relationship with Cuba, seen as a stumbling block towards improving relations with Latin America as a whole.
This report was authored by a Partnership for the Americas Commission, co-chaired by former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo and former Clinton-era US Ambassador to the United Nations and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas Pickering. One of its more ambitious proposals – perhaps an implicit recognition that US hegemony in the Americas is a thing of the past – is the creation of Americas Eight (A8), a steering committee of eight heads of state drawn from the US, Brazil, Mexico and the other big countries of the continent, to promote the new partnership and revitalize hemispheric institutions like the Organization of American States.
Where this would leave the smaller countries of the Caribbean and Central America is anyone’s guess, though Mr Pickering did suggest at a press conference that there could be some permanent members, with others, including the Caribbean nations, participating on the basis of rotation. Even without the current proliferation of regional groupings, the tendency towards multiple regionalisms and the onerous processes and increasing number of summits being spawned, this lack of equity alone would indicate that the A8 is a bridge too far.
Overall, however, the portents for a more positive relationship between the US and the rest of the hemisphere are encouraging. And although there is insufficient detail at this stage to predict the precise strategic directions of the Obama administration, Mr Obama’s expected presence at the Fifth Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain in April next year, which could be his first major multilateral outing as President, could be the ideal opportunity for the launching of a new US strategy for the Americas.
Hopefully, the new American President will be listening to Latin America and the Caribbean on what their governments and people believe is good for the region.