Those who have said Mrs Janet Jagan’s passing marks the end of an era are not mistaken, although that does not mean there will be any fundamental realignments in the political firmament in the immediate term. After all such transitions there is usually a period of closing the ranks, and the subsuming of animosities for the duration under a canopy of unity.
In any case, the government machinery is firmly in President Jagdeo’s hands, and ever since the head of state untied his bateau from the PPP stelling and sailed off on his own, the party (including the late Mrs Jagan) has had remarkably little influence on governmental decision-making. That is not likely to change for the moment. As for the PPP itself, Mrs Jagan for a considerable period of time had not been involved in the day-to-day management of affairs, and the party machinery, it is reasonable to suppose, will grind on as normal even though she is no longer there. There will have to be adjustments in the light of her absence, but probably nothing dramatic at this stage. In any case, as distinct from the PNC, the condition of the party infrastructure is still fairly sound and unlikely to disintegrate any time soon.
Having said that, of course, it has to be acknowledged that both Guyana’s major parties have always operated on a maximum leader principle, leaving little space for the evolution of a second leadership tier among their main acolytes, or for challenges from the rank and file. The PPP, being the most consistently ideological of the two parties, was always the more rigid, purging challengers and critics alike from its inner circle over the almost six decades of its existence. From the beginning too it has in a sense had a dual leadership, since Mrs Jagan constituted a political tour de force all in her own right. It is true that her husband was always the public image of the party, but her influence was so pervasive in its affairs, that it guaranteed the continuity of the Cheddi Jagan aura after his death. And Mrs Jagan ensured that from 1997 onwards she personally was the keeper of the flame.
So this is the first time in almost sixty years that the PPP will go into an election without a Jagan at the helm, either in a direct sense or impliedly. And therein will possibly lie the first major test of the party. While Mrs Jagan may not have been very active in party matters latterly, her psychological impact was still strong. She was the living embodiment of the traditions of the PPP; she had an intimate knowledge of the organization she herself had effectively created – she was the one with the administrative and organizational skills, not her husband; she was the major resource person (especially as she got older) to whom a range of party officers went for advice; she was the one to whom supporters seeking help directed their steps; and she was the person whose opinions about larger PPP strategy and intra-party controversies could not be dismissed out of hand. In short, after Dr Jagan’s death she was the focal point of the PPP in personality terms.
It might be added that with her instinctive talent for the use of power, she could exert influence of a more direct kind in concert with her allies on the executive committee and no doubt the central committee as well. So it is no exaggeration to say that her passing has left a genuine void − the kind of void where personal ambitions could potentially find ample room for expression. Whether in fact they will do so at a level which could undermine the party’s solidarity, is impossible to judge at this stage. As General Secretary, the de facto (and de jure) leader is Mr Donald Ramotar, and up until Mrs Jagan’s passing he looked like the most probable PPP candidate for the presidency going into the 2011 election.
Of course, the rumours have been circulating − most recently emanating from Mr Raphael Trotman of the AFC – that President Jagdeo would seek a constitutional amendment to abolish term limits so he could run for a third term. The President himself has never openly denied the rumours, although Mr Ramotar speaking on behalf of the PPP has always been forceful in his repudiation of them. The latest formulation of the story (earlier ones had the President seeking the cooperation of the PNCR to get a two-thirds majority in parliament) has a referendum on term limits being tagged on to local government elections.
Even if, for the sake of argument, that was legally possible with or without the cooperation of the ruling party, and even if, for the sake of argument, term limits were abolished, Mr Jagdeo would still have to be adopted as a presidential candidate by the PPP – an altogether more problematic proposition. Up until now Mr Ramotar could say with confidence that there would be no third term, presumably because Freedom House was sufficiently in control of the party machinery to rule it out. Without Mrs Jagan’s countervailing influence, however, it could, theoretically at least, be somewhat easier for Mr Jagdeo to exert more influence on the critical organs of the party. After all, the presidency, not Freedom House, has become the primary institution of patronage in this country since Mr Jagdeo cast himself adrift.
Before all these third-term rumours started mushrooming, it was understood that President Jagdeo’s own choice for presidential candidate in 2011 was Mr Robert Persaud. Here again, even if that is what the head of state falls back on in the absence of the prospect of a third term, it would still require him to be able to influence the party committees; Mr Persaud is not a stalwart with a long history in the PPP, and presumably will not be favoured by the old guard. It might be noted that while the endorsement of a particular candidate happens at congress, the issue is decided before it ever reaches that stage.
There may be others, of course, on the executive committee who might have ambitions, although whether they will suppress these in the interest of a united front, particularly if there is some tension in due course between Vlissengen Road and Robb Street, remains to be seen. Even if, however, the party holds together without the Jagan adhesive into the 2011 general election, over the longer term it will inevitably change. Leaving aside Mr Jagdeo, who despite a lack of natural charisma has succeeded in using the platform of the presidency to maximum advantage, the PPP has no really high-profile personalities with a magnetism which comes close to either of the Jagans.
As the old guard ages, younger figures will enter the upper hierarchy in Freedom House in greater numbers, and it will become an increasing challenge – even without any upheavals which cannot be predicted at present – for the party to maintain the monolithic Leninist structure conceived and nurtured by the Jagans, which was supremely effective as an electioneering machine, but unbending when confronting the profounder political problems of this nation.
All those who created our political structures have now gone – Forbes Burnham, Cheddi Jagan, Desmond Hoyte (although he came late to the PNC he dominated the party as his predecessor had done) and Janet Jagan. There will be change in the political arena (in the case of the PNC it is already under way), but what form it will ultimately take, how fast it will be and whether there is any hope that it will create possibilities for addressing our divisions more creatively than has been done in the past, is simply impossible to predict.
