Cuba, as is well known, has not been invited to the summit, which is billed as a gathering of the hemisphere’s 34 democratically elected heads of state and government. But Cuba is, as Norman Girvan puts it, “the Unseen Guest at the Summit” and Fidel Castro “the spectre haunting its deliberations.”
Perhaps connotations of Banquo’s ghost in Macbeth are misplaced, as the former Cuban President is far from politically dead. Younger brother Raúl may be President now, but Fidel’s opinion, as we saw in the recent purge of Carlos Lage and Felipe Pérez Roque, still carries enormous weight in Cuba. It is more than likely then that he and his country will be the proverbial elephant in the summit room.
There is a growing clamour for the United States to lift the embargo on Cuba and for the 1962 suspension of Cuba from the Organization of American States (OAS) to be revoked. More significantly, there is a strengthening sense in the United States that the time has come for normal relations with Cuba.
It is therefore noteworthy that the seven-member Congressional delegation on a five-day visit to Cuba enjoyed a very successful meeting with Raúl Castro, lasting four hours on Monday. In that meeting, the President reaffirmed his readiness to talk with Barack Obama’s administration, without conditions and on a basis of equality and mutual respect, in order to place the bilateral relationship on a normal footing after almost half a century of confrontation. President Castro also praised Republican Senator Richard Lugar’s letter to Mr Obama, calling on him to change US policy towards Cuba and to name a special envoy for Cuba.
Regarding his own willingness to meet with three of the legislators − Barbara Lee, Bobby Rush and Laura Richardson – Fidel Castro explains in his weekly ‘Reflections’ column immediately following the meeting that “circumstances have changed a lot” with the election of a black man as President of the United States, and the increased influence that the Congressional Black Caucus now wields.
Invoking the memory of Martin Luther King and attributing this moment of change in the USA to his thinking and works, Mr Castro declares himself profoundly impressed with Congresswoman Lee’s “political valour” in standing alone against George W Bush’s war in Iraq. Moreover, in what was clearly for him a stimulating exchange of views lasting just under two hours, the ageing revolutionary highlights the “sincerity and warmth” of the words uttered by his guests and pronounces, “It is evident that they know Obama and they reflect feelings of confidence, security and sympathy towards him.” And he appears to be taken with Mr Rush’s statement that “Obama can improve relations with Cuba, but Cuba must help Obama.” According to Ms Richardson, speaking to the press back in the USA, Mr Castro asked how Cuba could help.
Mr Castro is quick to point out in his article, however, that he let the American lawmakers know that Cuba was never the aggressor nor did she pose a threat to the USA. And notwithstanding his acceptance of the sincerity of Mr Obama’s words, there appears to have been general agreement in the meeting that there were “objective realities” in the USA that first needed to be overcome. As Raúl pointed out the day before, the Cuban leadership is keen to address the implications of a new, open relationship with the USA and will want to pursue jointly such topics as increased trade and narco-trafficking.
Clearly, Cuba is ready for dialogue. Thus, Fidel’s “magnificent meeting” may well offer a stronger indication of what the future holds than any speculation, fascinating as it may be, on the way things will play in Port of Spain next week.
So it might be too much of wishful thinking to expect that all will be resolved at the Fifth Summit. The question of Cuba’s suspension from the OAS has to be dealt with by the OAS itself, perhaps at its next General Assembly in Honduras in June. The embargo has to be repealed by the US Congress. President Obama has already relaxed restrictions on Cuban Americans travelling to Cuba and is expected to remove them altogether, as well as limits on remittances, sooner rather than later.
Perhaps Mr Obama will go to Port of Spain and make a policy statement on how the US intends to open up towards Cuba. But change is not going to take place overnight. Both sides, regardless of what their respective proxies and allies are saying, will want a manageable, incremental process. It will all be about the nature and tenor of the dialogue.
The White House summit spokesman, Jeffrey Davidow, has said that Cuba should not be the predominant theme of the summit.
He has a point. The situation is delicately poised and the Cuba question will have to be handled with the greatest of diplomatic dexterity by all, not least the summit host and chair, the Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago.
Meanwhile, there are other pressing issues for the summit to address, such as the global financial crisis and the revitalization of inter-American relations and cooperation, including the renewal of US engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean. More on that anon.
