India goes to the polls on April 16 in the first of five phases for its general elections. Published polls in February when I was in India say the incumbent Congress-led alliance is likely to win re-election. Political analysts in the media and academics I spoke with at universities also give the Congress led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh the edge. However, my own snapshot of the views of voters don’t conform to those of the polls or published opinions. I found a divided electorate and strong anti-incumbent feelings among voters. People seem to want an end to Congress rule at the federal level, and unless there is a change of opinion, it does not appear to me that the Congress will be re-elected although all the other polls have the party well ahead of its opponents. What can help the Congress is split voting in the opposition camp. The anti-Congress vote is badly split among caste-based and regional parties. This could help the Congress to win more seats with fewer votes than what it obtained in the last general elections.
People are voting along caste lines and for regional or state-based parties that seek more resources for their state. There is much enthusiasm for a Chamar Prime Minister, which is a real possibility, the first for a low caste candidate occupying the highest post. The Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati, could win a significant number of seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh to call the shots for an opportunity to become the PM. Uttar Pradesh is the state to where most Guyanese trace their roots. Chamar or Dalit voters told me they would like to see Chief Minister Mayawati become PM. Other caste-based leaders and the leader of the Communists have not hidden their ambitions to become PM.
At this time, any number can play and anyone can become PM. It appears to me that there will be a hung parliament with neither the Congress nor the largest Opposition BJP, led by LK Advani, being able to form the government. Whichever of the two major parties wins the most seats will be given the opportunity to form a government. It is unlikely such a government will last too long before voters are called back to the polling booths. I am heading back to India to conduct a survey on the elections in selected states.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
