Dear Editor,

It is still too early to say with any degree of absolute certainty why he is doing this, but so far, there might be two reasons why Dr Richard Van West Charles is returning to Guyana at this particular juncture: 1) because, like everyone else, he knows there is a noticeable leadership crisis in the country that no one in the PPP, the PNC or the government seems capable of resolving to the mutual satisfaction of all and sundry or 2) he has the backing of powerful political forces in Washington, which was where he was headquartered as a health consultant until opting for early retirement.

On point number one, let me make it clear that this is not an endorsement of Dr Van West Charles, but a candid conclusion of my ongoing assessment of the political situation in Guyana that cries out for strong, visionary, caring and results-oriented leadership. Almost everyone has an opinion of the leadership performance of President Bharrat Jagdeo as leader of the PPP government and Mr Robert Corbin, as leader of the major parliamentary opposition PNC, but the mere fact that these two men are polar opposites due to their parties’ dependence on an ethnically divided nation for support and votes, neither man has delivered nor can deliver the type of unified and progressive leadership Guyana badly needs.

So, regardless of what any of us may think of Dr Van West Charles, whether as the son-in-law of the late Forbes Burnham or the fact he was politically disconnected from Guyana for almost three decades, the question we all should be concerned about and he should be able to at least provide some insight to, is this: Can he deliver?

With less than two years left before the next scheduled presidential elections, Dr Van West Charles has to first deliver on his now publicized goal of unseating Mr Corbin as Leader of the PNC before he can even venture to unseat the incumbent President, assuming that the presidency is his goal. And so far, I have not read where he stated with any degree of specificity whether this is his ultimate goal or if he simply wants to unseat Mr Corbin and become the new PNC Leader.

As matters now stand, Mr Corbin may have quietly conceded that if race voting continues, the PNC will never regain power and so the only recourse for the PNC, and the country by extension, is for the PPP to facilitate a shared governance arrangement with the PNC. Dr Van West Charles, on the other hand, has his work cut out if he thinks he can change racial voting patterns between now and 2011 and thus carry the PNC back to power, but what would be his next move if he unseats Mr Corbin and takes over the PNC, but does not unseat the PPP? Will he then adopt Mr Corbin’s position and call on the PPP to share power? If so, then his bold re-entry into the local political arena would not have been a game changer as we are hyping it to be. Matter of fact, if Mr Corbin thinks his likely replacement won’t make a difference, he most likely won’t go down without a fight.

The last PNC honcho who tried to unseat Mr Corbin ran into a reinforced brick wall and managed to walk away with more than just a bruised ego, so what exactly are Dr Van West Charles’s motivation and modus operandi here? Is he genuinely concerned about the leadership crisis at the highest levels of our political system or is he being goaded by political forces in Washington who are interested in helping Guyana? I am not going to delve deeply into this (point number two) because it is just a passing thought that I have not given much time to analyzing, but if Dr Van West Charles has the backing of movers and shakers in Washington, will Mr Corbin step aside in some sort of compromise deal, or will he steadfastly resist so as to raise his own profile?

For the sake of discussion, let’s say Mr Corbin survives Dr Van West Charles’s intentions, is it not common knowledge he still is highly unlikely to ever lead the PNC to victory against the PPP, even if the PPP picked a pumpkin as its presidential candidate? So what exactly will be Mr Corbin’s own motivation for wanting to hang on to the position of Leader of the Opposition and PNC? Is it that he hopes the PPP will eventually concede on the shared governance proposal or does he simply feel more assured of such a deal now that Mrs Janet Jagan is no longer seen as the ultimate decision-maker of the party?

I did note the President struck a sort of conciliatory note a few days after Mrs Jagan’s funeral in which he ‘sorta-kinda’ offered an olive branch of collaborating (rather than fighting) with the PNC and AFC, and I wondered deeply about what that portended for our nation’s political future. Or was the President trying to placate opposition elements against taking advantage of any vulnerability in the PPP now its matriarch is gone and the in-fighting for party power may now begin?

As we wait for the pieces to fall into place − including Dr. Van West Charles re-entry in local politics after orbiting outside the country for almost three decades − so we can get a better picture of what is developing on the landscape, two years may seem like an eternity for us, but in politics, it is ‘just around the corner,’ and rather than draw hard and fast conclusions based on what we are seeing or hearing, we really should also be prepared for any eventuality, even outside the PNC purview. For example, the spotlight is now on  Dr Van West Charles, Mr Corbin and the PNC, but what about the other political contenders: the PPP and AFC?

Will President Jagdeo seek a third term in a deal with Mr. Corbin via Parliament or even take over the PPP and try the Russian Medvedev-Putin stunt featuring Robert Persaud or someone else? What about Ralph Ramkarran or even long-shot Donald Ramotar (who I think would be worse than Jagdeo)? Then there is the AFC, which threatens to end the politically inspired racial divisive tactics of PPP-PNC that keep the two viable. Will the AFC finally make deeper inroads into their respective constituencies, become a major game changer and show the PPP and PNC how to govern? Or will it go from sizzle-to-fizzle in support of a shared governance deal between the PPP and PNC?

Like I said, in the political time-space continuum, 2011 is really ‘just around the corner’ and just as Dr Van West Charles has surprised many with his planned return to politics to oust Mr Corbin, who knows what other big surprises await us around the corner?

Yours faithfully,
Emile Mervin