By Rawle Lucas
Rawle Lucas is a Guyanese-born Certified Public Accountant and Assistant Vice-President of the Lending Services Division.
Mr Lucas has agreed to serve as a columnist with the Stabroek Business and will be contributing articles on economic, financial and development matters.
Life Expectancy
He appeared barely able to walk, and with the piece of wood in his hand serving as a bat against what looked like a beach ball, he appeared to be in greater danger of inflicting harm to himself than socking the ball away to the rickety fence. That was about two years ago and as my mind rolled back to the incident, it christened the child Jimmy. From the look of things, he was two years old then, and from where the observation occurred, must have been a resident of Norton Street in Lodge. Living in Guyana, Jimmy has a 95 percent chance of becoming a healthy school-age child. Thanks to a very good regimen of vaccination provided by the health service of Guyana, he is probably among the 96 percent of Guyanese children who have been vaccinated against such childhood diseases as measles, diphtheria, whooping cough, polio and tetanus.
As he becomes an adult and encounters the megrim of life, his odds were likely to change. Jimmy’s chances of making it to at least age 62, the longest males are expected, on average, to live in the country of his birth, are reduced to 70 percent. The odds against Jimmy must have increased with the realization that HIV/AIDS lurks as a serious threat to him and many other Guyanese who seek to live past the life-expectancy age of 62.
As a survivor of threats from childhood diseases, Jimmy is among special company as well. He is one among a population that is almost evenly split between males and females and who were likely to attend school and complete their primary education. Equally true is that the Guyana population is young and children like Jimmy would count among the 61 percent that are below the age of 30 who still live in Guyana. By extension, Jimmy would also count among the 68 percent of the population that are below 35 years of age that make up this vibrant and dynamic demographic in Guyana. Jimmy and those like him represent and hold the future of Guyana in their hands.
Prerequisite
As insignificant as Jimmy appeared two years ago with his makeshift bat in his hand, it is his vision and that of his peers that will matter to Guyana. Naturally, the older children in his world of youth will have an opportunity before him to make their mark on the country. But, what Jimmy does today will influence the contribution that he could make to Guyana tomorrow and in the distant future when his turn arrives. Jimmy will be the consumer who helps to generate demand for the products made in the country. He will be the worker to produce goods and services needed by the country. He will be the policeman to make people feel safe and secure and the nurse to help people heal. He will be the leader needed to guide the company and, possibly, the country forward in an attempt to make life better for himself and everyone else.
There is a necessary prerequisite to all of the preceding possibilities. It involves actions by the administration and personal responsibility on the part of Jimmy and every other Guyanese like Jimmy. To be prosperous, the economy must offer abundant and competitive job opportunities to its workers. That responsibility falls to the administration. It has the obligation to create the environment that would lead to a demand for workers. It comes from maintaining the conditions for boosting savings and investment that could lead to economic growth and expanded employment opportunities. A combination of tax incentives and fiscal stimulus would help.
Quality of Workforce
Jimmy has his part to play as well. The earlier he starts on a constructive path of childhood development the better it would be for him and for Guyana. At his tender age, his fate is in the hands of his parents who hopefully would set him on the right path. In addition to completing his primary education, Jimmy has to complete his secondary education also. If nothing has changed since 2002, there is a 38 percent risk that Jimmy might not attend secondary school at all and, if he did, could end up dropping out after he has started. Only 62 percent of the appropriate school-age population in Guyana complete secondary education.
This achievement, though workable, masks a problem that could be at the heart of the economic woes of the country and the intractable force of poverty. The problem is the quality of the workforce in Guyana.
The legal working age in Guyana is 15 which means that work becomes a legitimate option for children during a period when they are pursuing a secondary education. Most children are expected to complete secondary education before leaving school. At the time of leaving school, they should have earned at least the minimum qualifications to obtain work. Some students may think a school-leaving certificate is enough. The more ambitious probably think that passes at the Caribbean Examination referred to as CXC or the General Certificate of Education or GCE ‘O’ Level, and higher, are the better options. This is a view that this writer shares since passing either of these examinations increases the chances of children either gaining entry into university to further their studies or into the workplace to earn money to upkeep themselves.
Unskilled
Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that somewhere between children entering and leaving secondary school, Guyana experiences an educational meltdown or letdown. Even after completing secondary education, a majority of the working age population of Guyana remains unskilled and unable to help the country achieve high levels of labor productivity. Over half of the nation’s population that go to school are being permitted to leave school without evidence of having the capacity to meet job requirements and admission standards for tertiary education. This result is being achieved after the country spends billions of dollars to build or rehabilitate schools and to train and pay teachers.
According to estimates reported by the Bank of Guyana, the working-age population of Guyana in 2007 was around 470,000. This population counted persons between the ages of 15 and 65. The painful reality is that an estimated 69 percent of this working-age group of people is without the expected qualifications that convince employers that they could do a job satisfactorily. If Jimmy does not take personal responsibility for his education and his parents are not there to help him, Jimmy could be among this unfortunate statistic.
This outcome has led to a substantial mediocre population entering the labor force and, consequently, to wide disparities in wages. Based on data reported in the 2009 Budget and disclosures by the National Insurance Scheme (NIS), it is known that a worker in the upper income bracket earns more than three times what a worker in the lower income bracket earns. Professionals and persons with advanced degrees are known to earn many multiples more than the lower wage earners. This narrative also underscores a reported source of poverty in Guyana.
Frustrated
Admittedly, training can be job specific and usually adds to the skill level of the worker. But even there, only a small percentage of Guyanese avails themselves of that training, even though it should be recognized that the opportunity comes with the job. The broad picture reveals that nearly 44 percent of the eligible Guyana population do not participate in the workforce. This is a large number of people with no statutory reason for being left out of the workforce. This seems to be by choice and leads one to wonder what role low educational achievement might be playing in the decision to consciously stay out of the active workforce.
If Jimmy wants to be counted among the employed and avoid poverty, he would have to complete secondary school with more than a school-leaving certificate. Otherwise, he could end up as a frustrated young man who undermines harmony and provokes violence, instead of creating a peaceful and prosperous Guyana.