MEXICO CITY, (Reuters) – Mexico announced yesterday that its swine flu epidemic has passed the worst and experts said the new H1N1 virus might be no more severe than normal flu, although it could still impact on world health.
Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said the flu was easing but warned that it was too early for Mexico — the epicenter of an outbreak that has spread to 19 countries — to let down its guard.
The outbreak of H1N1 flu appeared to have peaked in Mexico between April 23 and 28 and fewer people had admitted themselves to hospitals with serious flu symptoms in the past few days, Cordova said.
“The evolution of the epidemic is now in its phase of descent,” he told a news conference in Mexico City, where millions of people heeded government advice to stay at home. “There is evidence that we are going downward.”
After days of alarm and a partial shutdown of the economy that had kept streets eerily quiet, the atmosphere in Mexico’s capital appeared more relaxed yesterday, with some people venturing out on bikes or running.
Many no longer wore the surgical face masks that have become almost obligatory in the city in the last week as residents feared infection.
But millions of Catholics stayed away from churches, instead watching Sunday mass on television.
Mexican authorities have scaled back their estimate of how many people could have died from the flu strain to over 100, down from 176. Only 19 deaths in Mexico are confirmed as being caused by the new flu.
But new cases of the virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, still were being tracked across the world, keeping alive fears of the threat of a pandemic.
The WHO said its laboratories had identified 787 H1N1 flu infections in 17 countries, including Ireland. Its toll lags national reports but is considered more scientifically secure.
Colombia became the latest country to report a confirmed case of the disease.
The flu has spread to 30 U.S. states and infected 226 people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. It appears to be hitting mostly younger people, with very few cases reported in those over 50 years old.
CDC acting director Richard Besser said there were “encouraging signs” that the new strain was not more severe than what would be seen during normal seasonal flu.
But he still expected the virus to have a “significant impact” on people’s health. “We’re not out of the woods,” Besser told “Fox News Sunday.”
The U.S. government said it hoped to have a vaccine ready for the new flu strain by the autumn.
In Britain, Health Secretary Alan Johnson said the spread of the new flu strain had been contained there.
A World Health Organization spokesman said in Geneva its emergency committee had no meeting scheduled to review its global alert for the H1N1 flu, which it set last week to 5, one notch below pandemic level.
“We cannot lower our guard,” the spokesman said.
Health officials and scientists from around the world have been focusing on how the new mutated, mongrel flu strain may be passed between animals and humans.
The WHO said flu surveillance should be increased in both humans and animals now that the latest H1N1 strain was found to have infected pigs in Canada.
Canadian health officials said a traveler carried the virus from Mexico to Canada and infected his family and a pig herd.
Mexico has seen a stabilization of serious cases in the past few days, bringing some relief to its population, millions of whom have stayed indoors in line with a government order for non-essential businesses to remain closed through Wednesday.
The five-day shutdown will be reviewed today.
“We’ve been indoors since Friday. So now we’ve come out to enjoy some fresh air,” cyclist Silvia Rodriguez told Reuters, relaxing on the grass of a central park in Mexico City.
Some countries were taking few chances
