The forthcoming General Assembly of the Organiz-ation of American States, at the beginning of June, in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, is expected to be dominated by discussion on Cuba’s readmission to the OAS and its place in the hemisphere.
In 1962, at the height of the Cold War, Cuba was suspended from the OAS, at the urging of the United States of America. Now, following the Fifth Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and President Barack Obama’s declared intent to seek “a new beginning with Cuba,” speculation is rife that this could be a landmark General Assembly.
The Honduran Foreign Minister, Patricia Rodas, visiting Washington on Monday, has already expressed the hope that the General Assembly will be a “historic event,” noting that it could be “key for the future of the OAS,” if, as she expects, there arises “a new form of political dialogue in the continent.”
Some might argue that there is already “a new form of political dialogue in the continent,” as a consequence of President Obama’s engagement with Latin American and Caribbean leaders in Port of Spain. But, of course, a lot more substance to match the style has to follow with regard to his administration’s policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean. And Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, is increasingly regarded as the key to the new US engagement with the rest of the hemisphere south of its borders.
Nevertheless, the Foreign Minister’s desire to ‘big up’ the Honduran General Assembly is perfectly understandable. And while the main theme of the General Assembly is “Towards a culture of non-violence,” to be reflected in a declaration that Honduras hopes will be “short, precise and concrete” – which would be quite the opposite of the summit’s ill-fated Declaration of Port of Spain – there appear to be high hopes that significant progress will be made in San Pedro Sula towards reversing Cuba’s suspension from the OAS.
Now, even though almost the whole hemisphere has been clamouring for a normalization of relations between the USA and Cuba and for Cuba’s reintegration into the inter-American system, it is quite unlikely that the matter will be put to a vote in this General Assembly or in any other, without prior indication from the USA that it will support the move. For, as Prime Minister Patrick Manning discovered to his chagrin last month with regard to the adoption of the Summit Declaration, majority consensus without unanimity is sometimes close to meaningless.
And passing a resolution to readmit Cuba will not be a simple matter.
There are, after all, several possible sticking points relating to democracy, respect for human rights and freedom of expression in Cuba – issues on which the OAS has made considerable and important progress over the past 20 years.
The Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, has said that Cuba’s readmission to the OAS will depend on its desire to follow continental norms in democracy and human rights. President Obama has lifted restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba by Cuban Americans, but he has also said that any progress towards lifting the embargo will depend on the freeing of political prisoners in Cuba.
However, with an increasing number of US states and agricultural interests looking for market opportunities in Cuba and calling for the removal of the embargo, the pressure is mounting for its unilateral repeal. This will depend on Congress, and the chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Congressman Charles Rangel, has introduced legislation to end the embargo. Some believe that an intermediate step might be for Congress to move first to end restrictions on agricultural sales and US citizens travelling to Cuba.
But in spite of the pressure coming from within the USA and from Latin America and the Caribbean, there remain serious questions as to whether the Cuban government is itself ready to adopt certain democratic measures, including releasing its political prisoners. So far, the official Cuban position is that the embargo was imposed on the island by the USA, which also orchestrated Cuba’s suspension from the OAS, both viewed as acts of aggression by Cuba. So, why then, they ask, with righteous indignation, should Cuba have to make concessions for these actions to be reversed?
Cuba has been able to make its way in the world for the best part of the past 50 years, albeit with mixed social and economic results, without the USA and the OAS. It is a member of other regional processes, such as the Ibero-American Summit, the Rio Group and ALBA. This all rather begs the question whether Cuba needs to be in the OAS just yet.
For the Cuban leadership, it would appear that the stakes are higher than readmission to the OAS. It will therefore be fascinating to see how this particular political poker game plays out at the General Assembly and beyond.
