One wonders just how much monitoring of events in neighbouring territories the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does, given its limited resources. Certainly experience – some of it quite recent, as in the case of the CGX rig – should have taught us that we should not allow ourselves to be taken off guard. And we have at least one neighbour who at some point down the road might not display the amity towards us it appears to show at present. While the government seems to have persuaded itself that Miraflores has accepted the PPP argument that the claim to Essequibo was really a Cold War issue which has no further relevance, it should operate with caution. The claim took on a life of its own a long time ago, and the forces operating against its relinquishment are strong. Besides, there are many ways in which to pursue an objective; the proposed road between Georgetown and Caracas, for example, would open possibilities for Venezuela in relation to its goals here that a more direct, aggressive approach might not.
Despite the publication of ostensibly soothing reports (which have never been officially confirmed) about what President Chávez may have said to President Jagdeo with regard to the border controversy, Caracas still treats this country with contempt. The evidence can be found in the fact that we have had no satisfaction in the cases involving the blowing up of Guyanese dredges and the killing of one of our citizens by the Venezuelan military on our territory. When the Venezuelan army killed Brazilian miners in Bolívar state, Brasilia was given satisfaction, and the soldiers involved were charged.
In addition, President Chávez, it seems, has not made any changes to the maps which he uses for public purposes. On Friday the Latin American Herald Tribune ran an uncaptioned photograph in its online edition showing the head of state seated at a table flanked by officials with a map of Venezuela propped up beside him. The map had manuscript markings on it, apparently made by the President himself since he looked as if he had a pen in his hand, and on the basis of these it could perhaps be surmised that he was not concerned with the controversy with Guyana per se on this occasion. It was noticeable, however, was that while Venezuela’s neighbours were not distinguished, being shown in white, Essequibo (as on previous Venezuelan maps) was highlighted in stripes, zona en reclamación style.
Then there was the Caribbean Net News report last week that Venezuela had sent a high-level delegation to Paramaribo, and thereafter it had been decided to reactivate the Suriname-Venezuela Commission and the Political Consultation Mechanism. What the latter involves was not explained; however, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs cannot be unaware of those occasions in the past when there appears to have been co-ordination between our eastern and western neighbours in relation to this country. This does not mean that we have any cause for immediate alarm; it simply reminds us that we should always be conscious of the potential for situations to develop in unexpected directions in the future, and the need, therefore, for contingency planning.
Interestingly, it was reported that President Venetiaan had expressed anger to President Chávez in Port of Spain over the interference of the Venezuelan ambassador in Suriname’s internal political affairs. The ambassador was summoned to Caracas for “consultation,” following which Mr Chávez’s Vice-Minister for Latin America and the Caribbean with officials in tow was subsequently dispatched to Paramaribo. The network said that Vice-Minister Francisco Arias Cárdenas told reporters that his mission was “to patch up relations with Paramaribo.” Unfortunately it was not reported what form the “interference” in Suriname’s internal political affairs had taken, although it might be noted that it is not the first time Miraflores has been accused of meddling in the politics of South and Central American states, particularly prior to elections.
Venezuela has an undoubted potential for volatility, and in some circumstances that could possibly have consequences for us. The frequent elections notwithstanding, the country is moving in an anti-democratic direction, with the stripping of power from the opposition governors and mayors elected last year. The most high profile of them, Manuel Rosales, has been charged with corruption and has been granted asylum in Peru. The issue is not whether he is guilty or not, but the lack of even-handedness on the part of the authorities who are selectively investigating corruption, avoiding government officials as far as possible. There have been accusations for a long time, for instance, about the activities of some members of Mr Chávez’s own family in their home state of Barinas. In addition, of course, there is the issue of whether Mr Rosales would receive a fair trial in circumstances where the government is perceived to control the judiciary.
A law is about to be passed which would enable the President to appoint “vice-presidents” to ‘oversee’ governors and mayors, effectively denuding them of all authority. His main targets are the opposition local officials. He has already removed their control over ports, airports and roads, and in the case of the opposition Mayor of Greater Caracas, taken away 96% of his budget and his responsibility for health centres and the police. In other words, Mr Chávez has neutralized the will of the people expressed in local elections last year.
In addition, the media are under pressure again; opposition demonstrations, as opposed to pro-government ones, are met with police aggression; and 60,000 books are said to have been removed from the public library shelves and pulped or burnt allegedly for ideological reasons. The works, reported the Miami Herald, included those by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry and Alfred Hitchcock. That paper also reported there were now 40,000 Cubans working in Venezuela in a variety of fields, including education; their participation in the latter area it might be said, has generated criticism from some educationists as have proposals for changes to the curriculum which appear to be politically inspired.
While Mr Chávez proceeds with his centralization programme, the economy is not in a robust state. As we reported yesterday, he has nationalized oil service companies to which the state oil company, PDVSA was in debt. The price of oil, of course, has fallen dramatically on the world market, and the oil company has a cash flow problem, while for its part Miraflores is facing difficulties financing the many large-scale projects to which it is committed. Oil workers have already been told they can expect no salary increases this year, and in a general sense the government is not altogether on completely easy terms with any of the unions. These are under increasing stress from criminal elements, which have killed 154 of their leaders – including pro-government ones – in the last few years, and the authorities appear powerless to do anything about it. As it is statistics put Venezuela in the top league in the hemisphere where crime is concerned.
None of this looks like a formula for long-term stability, unless, of course, the price of oil rises dramatically again. As said above, what it means for a small, vulnerable country like Guyana is that however rosy relations appear at present, there is always the possibility that the situation could change, not because of anything that happens on this side of the Amakura, but because of the dynamics within Venezuela itself.
