Dear Editor,
The SN article captioned ‘Volda trounced Norton…’ in the June 29 edition will no doubt stimulate speculation about Guyana’s future. The assertions of well respected PNCR MP, Mr Winston Murray that there is no reason for the PNC to apologise for anything it might have done during its 28 years in office, that every government makes mistakes and that the PNC is proud of its record clearly signal the PNC stance. The PNC finds itself in a quagmire. To apologise for the injustices and misrule during its tenure is to appeal to Indo-Guyanese votes. The opportunity cost of this, would be its traditional supporters, a high cost as it is unlikely that an apology would translate into more Indian votes for the PNC and may only result in losing traditional supporters. Not to apologise is to remain with its own meta-narrative with viability seriously eroded and under continuous threat from the Alliance For Change (AFC).
The PNC is no longer a credible and respectful opposition and the PPP rightly continues to disrespect them. The PNC will continue to lose supporters to the AFC. This will translate into the PPP automatically continuing to triumph at general elections. If one looks at the last three general election results by region and collate this with our demographic trends, the only conclusions to be drawn are: the PPP will win the Presidency in 2011; the PNC will lose more supporters to the AFC; both the PNC and the PPP will receive less votes, while the AFC votes will increase, especially if a coalition with GAP/ROAR and JFP is arranged.
I have analysed the trend, which confirms that the main ethnic groups in Guyana continue to overwhelmingly vote according to racial preferences. The high crime rate has done nothing to wean supporters away from the PPP and the only reason the PPP will get less votes is because of the high rate of migration in Guyana, especially by the Indo-Guyanese community. The inherent distrust between Indians and Africans sets the tone for race-based voting and Mr Murray’s vehemence cements this distrust, which is a great disappointment.
But it is very interesting to note that the PPP has not won elections with only Indo-Guyanese votes alone. The PPP has improved its support base in the Amerindian communities and enjoys growing support from Black Guyanese and Mixed-Guyanese communities. The PNC, on the other hand, has lost its Amerindian support base, never had a credible Indo-Guyanese support base and is experiencing reduced support from Afro-Guyanese and Mixed Guyanese voters (especially those looking at issues rather than ethnicity as a factor). The greatest beneficiary of all of this is the AFC.
When Tony Blair won the election in the UK, he hit out at old Labour and was in turn accused of taking politics out of politics. His response was that over 60% of the population at that time did not think of themselves as left wing or right wing, but middle of the road with a middle class standard of living, and thus he had to pitch his message to this 60%. The overwhelming majority of Guyanese still have trust issues to work out in exercising their franchise, and are not ready for issues-based politics. It is this reality which continues to see mainstream political parties playing on the fears of Guyanese at election time. It is this reality which has denied one of my favourite and in my opinion one of the most competent PPP sons, Dr Roger Luncheon, a shot at the presidency, and Winston Murray the leadership of the PNC. Almost 18 years after we had free and fair elections, there are still very strong signs of cracks and fissions in our society.
We missed an opportunity to have established a Truth Commission to flush all the bad blood out of our system. Guyana’s politics and ethnic trust issues are the biggest obstacles to her development and they are much more important than climate change or Carifesta, but continue to be dealt with in a ‘business as usual’ style, with no national effort or money being put into securing the social cohesion of our peoples. But I guess this legacy issue will have to wait on the next PPP administration when we find our FDR, our Teddy Roosevelt, our Abraham Lincoln.
It is hoped that the next leader will commit to leaving a political progeny, and a social programme such as a national social cohesion programme that would commend itself to our future generations.
When will we ever learn? Even though the Barbadian Health Minister was very abusive to his fellow Caribbean people, including Guyanese, he asked one question that stimulated my mind – why are some Caribbean countries not fixing their economy and getting to the point where their citizens do not feel the need to run away?
Yours faithfully,
Sasenarine Singh
