BOGOTA, (Reuters) – Colombian lawmakers have approved a final bill calling for a referendum to allow President Alvaro Uribe to seek re-election in May next year if he decides to run for office for a third time.
Uribe’s backers won a tough political fight getting the bill through Congress. But the re-election proposal still faces judicial and legal obstacles and time is running short to organize a referendum before May’s presidential election.
Uribe, a U.S. ally popular for his security campaign against rebels, has still not stated clearly whether he will run. The proposal calls for a referendum on whether Colombia should amend its constitution to allow a third term.
Here are some key questions about the referendum:
WHAT IS THE NEXT STEP?
Uribe now has to sanction the law before it goes to the constitutional court where judges will decide on its legality. If he decides against it, the referendum proposal dies. If he passes it to the court, judges have at least 60 days to make a ruling and may take longer. If approved, the president must then announce a date for the vote, but electoral authorities have said they could need three months to organize the poll.
For the referendum to be valid, more than 7 million voters — 25 percent of the electorate — need to participate. Uribe remains popular, but he has faced criticism over illegal wiretapping by state agents and probes into soldiers charged with executing civilians to report them as rebel combatants.
WILL THE COURT PASS THE BILL?
When Uribe was first re-elected in 2006 after changing the constitution once before, the court suggested one amendment was enough. The new proposal already faces challenges over irregularities from its financing to the way an initial vote was conducted. But the court only has limited powers and will focus on irregularities in the bill’s passage not its content.
“It is very difficult, but not impossible for the court to approve the referendum,” said Clara Ines Vargas, a former constitutional judge and expert in constitutional matters. Juan Carlos Moncada, a constitutional lawyer, told local radio the court could make its ruling in December if judges work swiftly and no legal proceedings block its passage. But delays may push it into next year, threatening the referendum.
Constitutional expert Jaime Castro said the court could consider the case of national interest and rule in two months. Seven of the nine judges are newly appointed, making their positions hard to read. They may also be influenced by the political weight of the nearly five million people who signed an initial petition to create the bill.
“Anticipating what the court will do is very difficult,” Castro said.
WILL URIBE RUN AND WHEN OES HE HAVE TO DECIDE?
Uribe has kept his cards close to his chest, perhaps as a way to maintain order in his political alliance of various parties, some of which want their own presidential candidates. He has called the re-election issue a “crossroads of the soul” as he considers how to guarantee his security and investment policies are maintained. But he has suggested he could make way for another candidate. Under law, candidates must announce their intention to run by the end of November, but Uribe supporters are working on ways to get round that restriction.
WHY SUPPORTERS WANT MORE? WHY THE OPPOSITION WORRIES?
Uribe’s backers say he is the country’s most successful president after he sent troops to retake areas under rebel and paramilitary control. Investment has grown and violence from the conflict has ebbed as rebels were weakened and outlawed paramilitary gangs disarmed.
But critics worry changing the constitution yet again to allow Uribe to seek re-election is a dangerous precedent that undermines Colombia’s democratic institutions. Some talk of “institutional dictatorship” and compare him to Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who won a referendum allowing him to stay in power as long as he wins elections.
