UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Washington acknowledged yesterday that Iran’s long-range missile programme posed less of a threat to the West than previously thought. But the United States and its allies will still seek to rein in Tehran’s nuclear programme.
US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said what many diplomats and analysts have long maintained — that the threat of Iran’s long-range missile programme is not as acute as previously thought. Despite Iranian announcements of significant progress made in its long-range missile programme, analysts have pointed to technical problems and questioned the veracity of some of the official Iranian statements.
Without a long-range delivery vehicle for a nuclear weapon, there is clearly little threat that Iran would be able to successfully fire a nuclear, or any other kind of warhead, at the United States if it wanted to.
However, analysts and intelligence officials have said that Iran’s nuclear programme represents a medium- or long-term threat and one that can be dealt with diplomatically. There is no concern that Tehran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful and is not aimed at building atom bombs, could have a nuclear warhead anytime soon, they say.
The expansion of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme has slowed down in recent months, according to the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna, though this may be the result of technical problems and not political decisions. Most Western intelligence agencies believe the soonest Iran could have an atomic weapon is in several years that would be a worst-case scenario.
Western diplomats say there is therefore ample time to negotiate with the Iranians to try persuade them to abandon the programme. Both Brazil and Argentina were persuaded to abandon covert atomic weapons projects in the 1980s. Iran has agreed to meet on Oct. 1 with the United States and other major powers concerned about Tehran’s nuclear programme.
President Barack Obama’s critics in Washington accused him caving into the Russians, who were furious about the missile shield plan. Moscow saw the project as encroaching on its sphere of influence, namely post-communist central Europe, and said the system could present a threat to Russia itself.
