It is of course richly ironic that the United States had previously been resisting the entreaties of some to become more active in pushing for a solution in Honduras, particularly amidst accusations that the US, or at least the US military, had had prior knowledge of the June 28 coup, and also because the Obama administration did not want to appear to be contradicting its stance on a return to multilateralism and a more respectful re-engagement with Latin America.
Nevertheless, it has to be recognized that Mr Zelaya, notwithstanding his ALBA credentials and friendship with President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, was himself prominent in calling for greater American involvement in resolving the Honduras impasse, in the context of Mr Micheletti’s defiance and general suspicions that the de facto regime had friends in high places in the USA.
The agreement brokered by Dr Shannon is based on the San José Accord, originally proposed by President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica, with the support of the United States. It is meant to put to rest Mr Zelaya’s clumsy attempts to hold a national referendum on constitutional reform, which provoked the coup in the first place. Both sides have also agreed on the creation of a government of national unity and that the question of Mr Zelaya’s reinstatement will be decided by a vote in the Honduran Congress. The way is now supposedly clear to allow for international recognition of the elections scheduled for November 29 and a return to constitutional normalcy.
American pressure and the realization that, for a poor country like Honduras, prolonged international ostracism, excommunication from multilateral institutions and the loss of foreign aid, loans and investment would inevitably lead to economic disaster and greater political instability, appear to have finally tipped the scales in favour of a political compromise.
Notwithstanding the breakthrough, this does not however signify that the road to November 29 will be completely smooth, for Mr Micheletti and his more radical supporters continue to play for time, to delay, if not prevent altogether, Mr Zelaya’s return to the presidency. Indeed, the suspicion remains that they have not abandoned their strategy of holding out until the elections in the hope that in time, the new government would gain international acceptance.
On Tuesday, even as former Chilean president, Ricardo Lagos, and US Labour Secretary, Hilda Solis arrived in Tegucigalpa to head an OAS commission to verify implementation of the agreement, 13 members of the National Congress met and managed to postpone the critical vote on Mr Zelaya’s reinstatement, by asking the Supreme Court and the attorney general for nonbinding legal opinions. Needless to say, this stalling puts the whole agreement in jeopardy.
The crux of the problem seems to be that no timeline was set for the vote in Congress, providing those opposed to Mr Zelaya with a technical loophole for wriggling out of allowing his reinstatement before the elections. Unfortunately, what the Shannon agreement does not appear to cater for is what would happen if Congress does not meet before the elections, or worse, what would happen if the vote does not go in favour of the ousted president.
In addition, under the terms of the agreement, the government of national unity was to have been established by yesterday, though there was no provision as to who would head it. Mr Micheletti has written to Mr Zelaya asking for a list, “without delay” (!), of ten qualified candidates from whom to choose members of the government of national unity, but at the time of writing, the composition or the status of this government was not known. In the meanwhile, Mr Zelaya remains ensconced in the Brazilian Embassy, until Congress meets to decide his fate.
Call it intransigence or political cynicism, but there is every reason to fear that there are elements in the de facto regime that would stop at nothing to deny Mr Zelaya his restitution, even if it means more pain for the country.
Clearly, the USA, the OAS and the international community will have to maintain pressure on the de facto government to show genuine good faith in honouring last week’s agreement, as well as on other institutions and groups in Honduras, including the opposition National Party and its front-running presidential candidate, Porfirio Lobo, to convince everyone that it is in the best interests of the country to move forward with the vote in the Congress on Mr Zelaya’s reinstatement to guarantee international recognition of the elections. Otherwise, it will be back to square one.
