The government’s repeated insistence that the Guyana economy has been less affected by the global economic and financial crisis than those of other countries in the region does little to obscure the fact that 2009 has been another difficult year for ordinary Guyanese, particularly the unemployed and wage earners. Traditionally low wages in the public sector have only barely been enhanced by the now customary meagre annual increase. As far as the private sector is concerned several entities have told us that their employees had to go without any increase this year. We know too that – particularly in the manufacturing and retail trade sectors – there were some job losses this year though we were unable to determine the full extent of those losses.
Despite some official indications that there has been an increase in remittance flows, this, according to a number of merchants in the business community with whom we have spoken, has not reflected itself in additional consumer spending. The word on the street too, where much of the remittances received from abroad changes hands, is that there was little evidence of more money coming from abroad. In fact, the money changers told us that, if anything, less money changed hands on the streets so far this year.
It is of course not easy to obtain key statistics on issues like remittances, job loss levels and the performances of some of the sectors, either because these are not available (or where they are available they are unreliable) or are – as in the case of remittances, for example – a closely guarded secret. We know, however, that the sugar industry has had a torrid time this year; is still in the throes of an unresolved industrial relations issue that is costing GuySuCo millions of dollars in lost production and that the industry will enter 2010 in a mountain of debt totalling billions of dollars.
The bauxite industry has also suffered severely from the global recession and the attendant downturn in industrial production which has reduced demand by more than 30 per cent. So far this year the industry has announced several rounds of retrenchment and the prognosis of a very gradual recovery that will have to await an upturn in industrial production in developed countries spells more dismal news for the industry, at least in the short term.
The manufacturing sector too has had a torrid time this year with small export-driven entities – like the wood products sector – coming under severe pressure from loss of markets. And while there continues to be a market for agricultural products both in the region and elsewhere we have seen no sign yet of that sector cashing in on what continues to be the country’s potential to take advantage of what is widely believed to be an impending global food crisis.
This newspaper has sought the views of a number of small businesses in the retail sector including food and clothing. In most cases consumers have cut back on their patronage of restaurants and fast food establishments and some of the proprietors to whom we have spoken have said that they have had to cut back on staff and pay higher prices for inputs but the affordability of consumers has not allowed them to raise their prices. Interestingly enough, we did not get a sense that the apparel industry fared as badly. Some Regent Street merchants told us that patronage has been steady throughout the year though they too admitted that in order to sustain some measure of profitability they have had to reduce staffing levels.
We noted the advent of a number of Chinese retail outlets this year which would have made some modest contribution to job creation while creating some measure of consternation among street traders and vendors in the various arcades and malls around the city. When we put the concern expressed by local clothing and handicraft manufacturers over the steady rise in Chinese retail establishments offering cheaper Chinese imports to the commerce minister he told us that the policy of the government allowed for competition in the private sector and more competition would in fact serve to make our own manufacturers more competitive.
The recent news about tourist arrivals in Guyana increasing in percentage terms in relation to the rest of the region should, of course, be taken in context. While the available statistics would appear to indicate that more visitors are finding their way to Guyana we remain well below most of the rest of the region in terms of actual numbers of arrivals which still leaves the surfeit of hotels – some of which have been advertised for sale – with large numbers of unoccupied rooms.
We noted too that some traditional wage earners in urban and some rural areas have either commenced or expanded kitchen gardens and small poultry enterprises as a means of providing income subsidies though this appears not to have significantly affected the demand for fresh greens and vegetables the prices of which have witnessed some significant fluctuations over the past ten months.
On the basis of visible evidence the construction sector appears to present something of a departure from what obtains in several other sectors. It is difficult to miss the surfeit of renovations and new business places being erected in the commercial areas. It is indicative, we hope, of legitimate investment and an indication of confidence in the economy. What it has undoubtedly done is to ease the mounting unemployment, statistics for which, once again, are unattainable.
The signs of high unemployment, however, are clear. In both the white collar and blue collar spheres, too many applications are chasing too few jobs while more unemployed persons appear to be joining the ranks of the micro sectors, mostly vending.
When we asked some urban consumers about the approaching Christmas season and what this might mean for holiday spending many said, interestingly, that they expected remittance ‘top ups’ for the holiday period though some of them said they could not be sure. There are, too, early indications in the consumer goods sector of a sense of anticipation that seasonal shopping may bring a measure of respite from the reduced level of consumer spending this year. We have deduced from this that while a tough 2009 may well result in an imposed greater measure of caution in seasonal spending this year, Guyanese are once again likely to use Christmas to put behind them, however temporarily, the difficulties of the preceding eleven months of the year.
