The outlook for the next two months, based on all climate models surveyed, is that El Nino will continue for the remainder of 2009, Bhaleka Seulall, the Acting Chief Hydromet Officer said at a press conference yesterday.
Since mid-June the country had experienced a mild El Nino and this persisted until October. However, as of this week El Nino is showing signs of becoming strengthened and across the country weather stations have been experiencing a reduced number of rain days, Seulall said. Quite a few stations recorded a significant drop—about 70% below the long-term average, she added.
Seulall said the probability of El Nino conditions persisting through the December/January season is reasonably high. “As a result, what can happen in Guyana is that we will generally see near normal or below normal average rainfall with high probabilities of below normal rainfall in the southern part of the country and this will continue,” she stated. A Ministry of Agriculture statement said that there is a 40% chance of below normal rainfall and the present conditions could prevail to March. It is predicted that for December instead of 26 rain days as is normal, there might only be 10 to 15 rain days.
Meanwhile, at yesterday’s press conference, Agriculture Minister Robert Persaud outlined a number of interventions that have been taken and said that the impact of the El Nino so far has been minimal.
However, he said that two pumps are being set up to “throw” water into the EDWC and special provisions will have to be made to get water into the canal that supplies Guyana Water Inc’s (GWI) Shelter Belt.
Persaud noted that usually the battle is to get water out of the conservancy. “We’ll have to make special provision to pump water from the conservancy into the canal that supplies GWI Shelter belt with water so that we would not see any difficulties being faced by the citizens of Georgetown in getting adequate water supply,” he stated.
The ministry’s statement said that the National Drainage and Irrigation Authority (NDIA) has mobilised pumps to drain water into the EDWC from Maduni to sustain the level at 53.5 GD, in order to maintain the integrity of the dams. It said that navigation levels at LBI and Enmore continue to drop with LBI at 51.8 GD and Enmore at 51.9 GD. These levels are expected to drop even more as the acreage being tilled increases. The EDWC is currently at 52.75 GD and the taskforce that was formed to assess the El Nino conditions has ex-pressed concern about the level reaching 52 GD. “The gravity flow has been compromised along with the Shelter Belt dropping to 51 GD. Concern was expressed about the salt content when water is pumped from the Maduni,” the statement said. Persaud also pointed out that government has allocated some $49M for interior locations, since there is much concern with regard to the availability of water in those communities. The primary objective of the interventions in the hinterland is to ensure a safe supply of food and safeguard the future supply, he stated. “The focus, whilst not neglecting other areas, the focus right now is on the hinterland regions and primarily in Region Nine,” Persaud declared, adding that the Ministry of Amerindian Affairs is making arrangements to take food supplies to the furthest areas within the Deep South Rupununi. He said that while $49M had been allocated for the hinterland, the Ministry has been able to make some adjustments and re-organise programmes with the MMA/ADA and the NDIA and expenditure will surpass $200M.
On the whole, while the impact has been minimal there have been some reports of losses but the Ministry has not been able to quantify this in terms of dollars. There were some losses in rice, cash crops and cattle, the Minister said. He stressed that this was minimal and exports of non-traditional crops have not been affected. Addressing the water needs for the rice sector, he stated that contingency plans have been put in place and alternative arrangements made.
