There has been a continuing interest in the political and economic evolution of Cuba since the assumption of the presidency by General Raul Castro in July of 2006. The new President came into office with a reputation for order and discipline characteristic of an officer of the armed forces. He was also recognized, domestically and internationally, as the leader of the Cuban army which over the last two decades or so, had developed a crucial role in the management of certain aspects of the Cuban economy, in particular the tourism industry. So it was not surprising that in his early addresses to the Cuban people, he stressed the importance of managing the economy in such a manner as to ensure that it improved their living conditions and general welfare.
In general, international opinion has been favourable to the President, and in a sense so were the circumstances. It is true that the Americans maintained their embargo on the sale of most products to Cuba, but in the crucial sphere of the export of agricultural products and materials, the opening induced by the farm-producing states of the United States continued in a mutually beneficial way. In addition, the advent of both Presidents Chávez and Lula to office in Venezuela and Brazil had opened the way for new arrangements for exports, aid and diplomatic support to Cuba, with Venezuela being particularly helpful through its subsidized oil and oil products exports, and the transfer of foreign exchange in respect of Cuban health and other expertise sent to Venezuela.
The advent of President Obama to office in the United States advanced the favourable external atmosphere, with a further lifting of the embargo on travel and remittances particularly as these related to Cuban-Americans (an Obama electoral promise). This coincided with the Summit of the Americas, where pressures from the other member states of the OAS induced a formal decision to rescind the suspension of the Cuban government from the organisation, in accordance with certain agreed principles of the institution.
To this last gesture, which many Latin Americans and Caribbeans saw as a significant victory, the Cubans reacted with a certain reserve, though there can be little doubt that they will have perceived it as an important diplomatic victory. They will have been aware that it would have been unlikely that the decision would have occurred, and certainly not so early, if the Republican candidate had won the American presidential election. But on the other hand, while recognizing the relative liberalism in the international outlook of the newly elected President, their sense of realism would have indicated a certain caution based on the particular domestic and geopolitical relationships underpinning American diplomacy. In other words, they will have well recalled that it was the relatively liberal Governor Bill Clinton, then running for the American presidency who endorsed the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992, and then President Clinton who approved the Helms Burton Act of 1996, both of which tightened the screws on Cuba.
But it is non-geopolitical conditions, rather than any specific American political decision-making, that have put a damper on Cuba’s strategies and prospects for economic reconstruction, starting with the disastrous hurricanes of 2008 and continuing, and then the global economic recession currently affecting most countries. Cleary President Raúl Castro had intended to undertake a delicate manoeuvre of some degree of economic liberalization while holding the political reins fairly tightly in accordance with communist organisational principles, taking advantage of a favourable international economic climate and a degree of détente between the US and Cuba, supported by diplomatic empathy and concrete assistance from the European Union. These would strengthen the support gained from the emerging powers. Castro permitted a certain amount of discussion within the party and working places on the nature of the change desired, in order to get public support for the undoubted deep reorganization in working conditions that would have to take place.
It is said, in that context, that the Cuban regime has sought to navigate somewhere between the extent of state capitalism and individual private enterprise on the one hand, and maintenance of communist organizational rule with some domestic political opening, on the other, characteristic of what is occurring in China and Vietnam for example. But at the same time, a major concern was to avoid the kind of loosening of the political brakes on the system that occurred in the Soviet Union under Gorbachev. Of course, President Castro would be well aware that even the today much admired China had its Tiananmen Square.
Unfortunately, the depth of destruction of the hurricanes (particularly in 2008) affecting the country, and even more importantly the extent of the global recession, has inhibited any intended stable and progressive reorganization of the economic system. And the relaxation of the American embargo is clearly insufficient to provide the country with the amount of foreign exchange that it needs, as production of key sectors, barring perhaps the tourism industry, declines substantially. Indeed, it would appear that the country, particularly in respect of foreign exchange constraints, is back in what Fidel Castro described, after the disintegration of the world socialist system and socialism in the Soviet Union, as “a special period in a time of peace” – a period of economic stringency.
In that context, the leadership would appear to be taking a defensive approach to maintaining domestic stability, particularly in the face of decisions made to reduce or remove food rations, long a basic monetary substitute and social mainstay of the citizens. With that appears to have come a degree of tightening of surveillance of persons critical of the system, with Raúl Castro using the military-type heavy hand, if a recent report of Human Rights Watch, based on investigators within Cuba itself, is to be believed. In addition, observers will most likely have been taken by surprise by the announcement, towards the end of November, of what are described as the largest military manoeuvres in the last five years, aimed according to Cuban sources, against “a real possibility of invasion” ostensibly by the United States.
The European Union, which over the last decade has seemed to wish to move towards a greater degree of normalization of its relations with Cuba, no doubt spurred on by a traditional Spanish interest in maintaining investment and other relations with the country, has periodically hesitated in the last few years, on the basis that the human rights situation has not sufficiently evolved. It has been felt that under the forthcoming Spanish presidency, a further effort will be made, in a sense creating a way for a further normalization of relations on the part of the United States. The US itself has been involved in recent discussions on drug-trafficking with the Cuban government, in which both parties clearly have an interest. But a President Obama, now seeming to be under increasing pressure from a Republican Party apparently sensing the possibility of mid-term congressional victories, will be loathe to go too much beyond the traditional initiatives, even in spite of the apparent softening of Cuban-American opinion in Florida.
It goes without saying that the near-term evolution of the Cuban economy in particular, is of significance for other Caribbean countries, particularly those in the northern Caribbean, as global economic conditions are forcing them to reconsider the possibilities for new trading patterns and forms of economic cooperation to face the need for competitiveness through greater scale. If Brazil continues her economic growth, and Venezuela is able to steer her way out of the current recession, they will undoubtedly be interested to ensure a smooth re-integration of the Cuban economy into the hemisphere. Caricom countries, and certainly the Dominican Republic, will want to be a part of this. Systematic Caricom interest and study of the Cuban economy and political system becomes imperative.