Earlier this year, just after the launching of the first draft of the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS), the visiting Commonwealth Secretary-General Mr Kamalesh Sharma in an interview with this newspaper had perceptively spoken about the need for countries like Guyana to break out of the monocultural-type economy and to diversify their revenue streams.
He said: “There is pain for countries that are over-dependent [on a product] but this can be converted to gain through sensible policies and some countries have consciously made this change recognising that if a particular aspect of trading is going against them another aspect might be of some use”.
Mr Sharma then went on to reference Mauritius and its successes in fundamentally revamping its economy away from sugar. Of course, in these parts the notable successes of this Indian Ocean island in transforming its economy from mainly sugar to private banking, wealth management, medical tourism and a range of information technology-enabled services have wistfully been spoken of year in year out along with other transformed countries such as Singapore and closer to home Trinidad and Barbados.
Guyana simply hasn’t made the cut. Not in the immediate post-Independence period and certainly not in the last 17 years of PPP/C governance. It is this comprehensive failure to be the shapers of our own destiny and to effectively govern and secure the livelihoods of the people that have led the country into the uncertain maze that is the LCDS, REDD+ and the Copenhagen climate summit.
To great fanfare and encomiums from the quite unnecessary assemblage of government dignitaries at the Office of the President, President Jagdeo on Thursday launched the country’s second draft of the LCDS which will be marketed at the Copenhagen summit and used as a template for benefiting from agreements on financing for REDD+ and any useful initiative under a possibly extended Kyoto Protocol. It retains its original form except for the incorporation of the recent forests agreement with Norway.
Regardless of the outcome of Copenhagen – whether a political agreement only or binding limits on carbon emissions and temperature rise – the LCDS in its present form represents the starkest declaration yet by any government of this country of its absolute failure to utilize normative means to grow its economy and to radically transform it from the pernicious trap of primary products to a modernized economy with varied and sustainable means of growth and job creation for its citizens.
As environmentally noble as the lynchpin of the LCDS is – the pledging of almost all of the country’s forests in the fight against climate change – at its very core the strategy envisages a more elaborate form of mendicancy that could ultimately restrict the country and its people from deciding what kind of economy they may desire in the foreseeable future.
Given the types of forests it has and the distribution of its commercially viable species, Guyana could effortlessly have proceeded on a path of sustainable extraction of timber while still pursuing its own custom-made development objectives as enshrined in the National Development Strategy. This freedom of action would now be limited once we sign on fully to REDD+ and its various relations through which the updated LCDS envisages that Guyana would be able to tap hundreds of millions for low carbon-friendly initiatives such as hydropower, to invest in agricultural production on unforested lands and to secure pivotal infrastructure such as the East Demerara Water Conservancy. Investment or financing for these initiatives have been exceedingly difficult for this government to attract primarily because of its poor record of governance, its lack of innovation, its inability to nurture political quietude and the reign of narco-terrorism in the country.
The LCDS has therefore become the government’s fallback plan possibly because President Jagdeo envisaged that the end of his tenure was fast approaching and there needed to be something substantial that he would be remembered for. One doesn’t become an environmentalist or a climate campaigner overnight or even three years ago when these dilemmas have long been hot button issues globally. Had President Jagdeo been really serious about the LCDS the country would have been well on the way to being a low carbon economy. There is no evidence of this. No energy efficiency in building and cooling homes, no hydroelectricity, no wind power, very limited solar power, a belated attempt at bio fuels and the list goes on.
Nevertheless, what else is out there that can offer real short to medium-term hope for the local economy? Nothing. The economy remains stagnant. Sugar is in trouble. Jobs are scarce. Remittances may be under continuous threat. Tourism is a non-starter. In other words the LCDS is the only game in town at the moment and this is what President Jagdeo is now attempting to maximize for the country’s benefit.
The agreement with Norway for forest preservation contains the promise of US$250M applied to mutually agreed projects over five years. With the dearth of foreign direct investment and slimmer tranches from the MFI’s it is not to be sneered at and comes with solid guarantees that Guyana’s forests must not be degraded beyond agreed benchmarks. Whether Guyana can meet the bar set in terms of accountability and reporting requirements will be sorely tested and will establish very early whether President Jagdeo’s government is serious about this initiative.
While President Jagdeo has catapulted Guyana wholeheartedly into the REDD+ future it is instructive that Suriname and others which large swathes of forests have been more reserved about committing along these lines probably because of greater confidence in their own growth paths.
There is also the omnipresent spectre of corruption in governance here and the ramifications of this on the scrupulous use of resources to the satisfaction of contributors to the local REDD+ fund.
Disappointingly, the updated LCDS alights on numerous challenges which this government should have been more innovative at. The need to reverse the diaspora was mentioned. Guyana must have per capita one of the largest, skilled émigré populations of all countries. Yet we are still to organize and tap this vital resource. In Jamaica there is a parliament-level committee on the diaspora in touch with its people abroad to harness benefits for the economy. There is nothing like that here.
This lack of vitality and inspiration suffuses every part of the LCDS. As we asked in our editorial of June 8, 2009 on the first draft of the LCDS ”…the government blithely posits that with REDD financing streams Guyana could become a competitive global producer of high-end fruits and vegetables. How many similar asseverations accompanied by a bevy of plans, policies and strategies haven’t fallen by the wayside during the last 17 years of PPP/C governance”?
With the incorporation of the Norwegian agreement in the LCDS, Guyanese must now be able to learn what is contained in the final agreement between the two governments, how any future major development initiatives such as onshore drilling for oil and metals mining might be affected and whether as raised in yesterday’s column by Professor Clive Thomas, Norway intends to use this forest deal for offset purposes as that should certainly have been factored into this deal.
When all is said and done the LCDS is a sad commentary on the failure of governance and the lack of vision.
