Two points surfaced in your very comprehensive editorial ‘Guyana and the Copenhagen Accord’ (SN, December 28). The first point is that a fraud – at the very least a public relations one – may have been foisted on the nation; at this time, I reserve judgment on this. The second point is the obvious and now uncontained rise of China; on this I seek to elaborate.
It is becoming clearer by the day that China’s rise is nothing less than meteoric; that it is unstoppable. The meeting manoeuvres, outlined in the editorial, speak of a nation increasingly confident and comfortable in its already substantial power and influence. This is no more obvious than in matters involving competition, if not confrontation, with the so-called sole remaining superpower.
For starters, China can do what it did in Copenhagen (and elsewhere) because it holds the economic aces. It can blow out the lid from US interest rates and stagnate, if not cripple, the overall economy through a cessation in its own ongoing purchases of US debt. When this debt is coupled to the near identical trillion US dollar foreign reserve stash, it is painfully apparent that the Chinese can wreak havoc through any “philosophical or policy adjustment.” Or throw their weight around, as observed in Copenhagen. Not too long ago, it would have been unthinkable for anyplace to slight or embarrass the US, as was done.
But Copenhagen was only one very visible and close-up aspect of the Chinese juggernaut in action. I believe that the muted American reaction to the recent Iraqi oilfield concessions in favour of the Chinese is reflective of an understanding – an economic quid pro quo involving giving up oil on the one hand for debt, and dollar support on the other. Then, there have been the African oil and development safaris; the long term contracts with Middle Eastern producers, once in the back pocket of America; and its fluid, if not downright elliptical, North Korean and Iranian postures. No less illuminating has been its ignoring of the once fearsome Monroe Doctrine, through its presence in America’s own backyard.
As the Chinese advance across the board embracing economies and time zones, America’s own spheres of influence shrink, as it is forced to give ground. It does so reluctantly, but knowing full well that its options are limited, that its profligate debtor lifestyle is financed by a competitor, who might just happen to be the largest creditor nation around.
Still, there are some talking heads and suits who find a precarious comfort in pointing to the interdependent relationship between the two nations; who see no reason for the Chinese to be hasty or aggressive with their bonds and US dollars; and who are at a loss as to why the Orientals should want to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of a competitor. A competitor today, that is shaping up to be the adversary of tomorrow. They do well to recall a number of historical records now conveniently forgotten. The first is that Nixon and Kissinger got very little in return for what they gave up; that the fabled China market has more often than not proved to be just that to Westerners – a fable, with far more giving than getting; and that the Chinese mind does not think like Occidentals in quarters, but in years, very long spans of years. Those same experts, now including military ones, also would do well to recall that Chairman Mao once saw some utility in nuking half of mankind for the greater good of the remaining half. They might want to speculate if his quasi-capitalist offspring think that that might not be such a terrible idea after all.
Given what the NYT and SN revealed happened to the American delegation, especially its President, in the glare of Copenhagen, think of what transpires in the restricted palaces of the Forbidden City when the gwai lo appear. It is now undeniable: the Chinese are not coming, they are here! And their power keeps rising.
Yours faithfully,
GHK Lall
