Tribal divisions, lack of security outside towns, inexperienced government, corruption and signs that the semi-autonomous authority in the south has showing signs of repression have raised fears that an independent south Sudan may not end the problems faced by its people.
“The post-independence period — when the common denominator of self-determination is gone — could be marked by significant infighting and increased conflict on tribal lines,” Zachary Vertin from the International Crisis Group think-tank said.
Sudan watchers fear that without the unifying goal of an independent south to fight for, discontent may grow over the government’s poor provision of basic services, corruption and bad behaviour by the south’s ill-trained army.
Delayed and reluctant implementation of the 2005 peace deal between north and south, which promised democratic transformation, power and wealth sharing, elections and the prized referendum, has led many southerners to say they will vote to separate on Jan. 9, 2011.
The former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which fought the Islamic northern government over ideology, religion, ethnicity and oil and which dominates the south’s government, was kept busy ensuring the deal was implemented, leaving unresolved tensions under south Sudan’s surface.
Ethnic disunity was highlighted in 2009 when 2,500 lives were lost in inter-tribal violence. Many of the dead were women and children killed in ruthless, apparently highly organized attacks on large villages.
Southerners have accused Khartoum of arming rival tribal groups — as they did during the war — but have been unable to provide conclusive proof. Some believe rivalries among southern politicians and a security vacuum outside urban centres are to blame.
“Political jockeying is likely to intensify as elections and the referendum approach,” Vertin told Reuters. “A high degree of cooperation is necessary if they are to forge a new and viable state.”
