It might be appropriate to start with a few questions. What happens to the high school graduates who do not progress immediately to higher education? How many of them – if they so desire –can find gainful employment? What are the prospects for unemployed University of Guyana graduates? Further, what is the picture for those who do not complete either high school or university? When massed into a single figure, what is the aggregate number of the unemployed from over the years with or without schooling, limited or negligible skills, and whether young, in prime working years, or older?
It must be stated right up front that what follows are not official numbers or the result of any statistical rigour. In the absence of hard data, they are reasonable estimates of prudent people. There is the likelihood that some might find them the condemnable work of the very biased; but full speed ahead. It is estimated that there are about 225,000 to 250,000 individuals eligible and available for participating in the Guyana workforce. Eligible is defined as those of working age, and ready and willing to work, if it is available. From this pool, it is believed (repeat, believed) that those without work or unemployed range anywhere from a conservative 40,000 to an aggressive 75,000, which translates to an unemployment rate of 16% on the low end and as much as 33% on the high side. A realistic figure, which splits the difference, could be somewhere closer to 25%. So here is a possible unemployment figure of approximately 25% and in the tens of thousands, and it is almost the best kept secret, or among the least discussed issues.
For the longest while, government representatives do not incorporate unemployment in their charts and graphs. The dismal numbers never merit any attention, whether it is one in six or one in four or one in three unemployed. To emphasize further, the 2010 budget was crammed with numbers and projections, but noticeably bereft of any proposals towards ameliorating what has grown to disturbing proportions. There was no mention of targeted or aggressive job creation schemes or programs. As stated in Ram & McRae’s, Focus on Guyana’s National Budget 2010 (SN, February 11), “Once again, the Minister does not deal with… unemployment… in 2010…” Gone was the platform to unveil a multilayered job creation orientation within the budgetary framework.
However looked at, joblessness has to be a serious problem in Guyana. The issue assumes different proportions when it registers an overwhelming presence in depressed communities and depressed industries. Wherever they come from, this is a pool – indeed, a reservoir – rich in the pickings for exploitation. Here is a concentration within certain age groups, with sometimes limited education quotient, and questionable skills level that is most susceptible to overtures from men engaged in illegal activities of the most heinous natures. Here is a force of many available and gullible to the instigation of wrapping self in ethnic flags and engaging in intimidation, political mischief, and political violence. Then, there are the opportunists not committed to any segment, but still enterprising enough to be ready to pursue unfolding situations on behalf of the highest bidder. Or to free lance for themselves under that one ubiquitous umbrella cum growth industry present in Guyana: it is called ‘business’; business such as fronting for, burning down, or taking out.
Focusing on legitimate business momentarily, the global financial crisis has forced some local firms and expatriate exploration companies to furlough workers, while some Guyanese workers in the regions have seen their gigs vanish overnight. Diminished demand, liquidity constraints and corporate austerity were among factors identified. All of this only added more bodies to the unemployment rolls.
Altogether, the reality of so many jobless prompts searching questions. What would be the final jobless number if the escape valves of legal migration and backtrack were closed? What would it be if the vast majority of UG graduates stayed home? How bad would this situation be minus remittances and the cumulative trickledown effect? Similarly, eliminate the underground economy, and how many unemployment percentage points are added? When all things are considered, what, if anything, has been done over the years for those without work, and staring at the emptiness of prospects, pocket, and table in the face?
Against the coalescence of history, politics, race, pie-sharing, disfavour, perception, disenchantment, and criminal implications in Guyana, this situation has to unsettle. It is why there must be urgency in tabling the issue, and determining how to begin to address in a comprehensive manner.
Rather than criticize the government for failing to make unemployment a front-burner issue, it is more meaningful to urge that a preponderance of attention be given to the problem, though an explicit articulation of the architecture of job creation objectives, strategies, and schemes. At a minimum, this should start with trustworthy measurement of the unemployment rate, and solidified through carving out innovative approaches via a policy paradigm inclusive of open door, investor appeal, tax regime, legal structure, bureaucratic minimization, private sector collaboration, skills base, and capital market development, within an embracing vision. Assemble this vision under one roof and pursue in tangible and sustaining ways to ease a significant societal concern.
For the many without work it can mean a loss of dignity, impoverishment, and more. Therefore, there is a crying need for the government to work assiduously to reduce the unemployment ranks and rate, and to do so powerfully and quickly. It goes without saying that this can only result in a better Guyana.
