In my column last Sunday I indicated that the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) recent assessment of the state of the world’s forests had observed that, on balance, progress is being made around the world in giving priority to the sustainable management of forests. While noting this overall progress the FAO has, however, considered it to be too modest and too uneven across regions. In particular, in the rich industrialized/ developed regions and temperate climates, progress is considered significant. The forest cover in these areas is either stable or increasing. But in poor countries and tropical climes the position is reversed. Indeed the FAO has observed “the continuing decline in primary forests in most tropical countries is a matter of serious concern.”
FAO estimates show that at present there are as much as 4 billion hectares of forests worldwide. These forests cover approximately 30 per cent of the world’s land area. During the FAO assessment period (1990-2005), three (3) per cent of the world’s forest area was estimated to have been lost. The average annual rate of loss/decline was therefore approximately 0.2 per cent. Against this broad global background it would be useful for readers to observe a bit more closely the regional performances (outcomes) against which the state of Guyana’s forests should be considered.
The worst performers
During the 1990-2005 assessment period the FAO estimated that Africa had lost more than 9 per cent of its total forest area. This is three times the estimated overall global loss of 3 per cent. A major contributory factor to this loss has been identified as forest fires. In point of fact Africa accounts for more than one-half of the total global forest area damaged by wildfires. Of note this damage occurs mainly in those areas that are war zones or where there is serious conflict. Despite this distressing state of affairs, the FAO recognises that in recent years there has been greater political will to promote sustainable forest management in Africa. This is reflected in recent legislation, policy announcements, programmes started, and national political commitment in support of regional collaboration/cooperation in forest management in Africa. Recently, all this has been accompanied with far greater attention to law enforcement and governance issues in Africa than before.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region along with Africa constitute the two regions with the highest rate of forest loss. Remarkably, between 1990 and 2005 there was an increasing trend of forest loss in the LAC region. In the 1990s the annual rate of forest loss was approximately 0.46 per cent. But between 2000 and 2005 the average annual rate of forest loss ramped up to 0.51 per cent. The FAO also observed in its report that, like Africa, there are signs of improved political will and government commitment to sustainable forest management and the preservation of biological diversity in LAC’s forested areas.
The best performers
At the other end of the spectrum, the FAO found that most European countries are showing increased forest cover. In terms of sustainable forest management practices the FAO identifies Europe as a region with far more positive outcomes than negative ones. But even in this case, the FAO cautions that there is room for improvement, so urgent are the global challenges facing forests.
Like Europe the North American region also appears to be doing quite well. In the United States and Canada, forest cover is stable, although in Mexico it is declining. However, the rate of decline here has been slowing in recent years. Of more general note, although North American forests account for 17 per cent of the world’s forests, the region is responsible for as much as 40 per cent of wood removals worldwide! This situation reflects both the very high productivity and extensive commercialisation of North American forests.
In-between performers
In between Africa and the Latin American Caribbean region on the one hand, and Europe and North America on the other, falls the Asia Pacific region. Here the FAO has estimated that there has been an increase in forest cover in the more recent period (2000-2005). However, most of this improvement is confined to East Asia, chiefly China. Earlier data provided in this series showed that worldwide China has had the largest net increase in forest cover (40.1 million hectares). In South Asia there has been a small increase in forest cover in the 1990s, followed by a small decrease over the period 2000-05. Illegal logging, pests, and diseases have posed the greatest hazards to this region’s forests.
Other regions like the Near East do not have significant forests due to their arid climate. Forest products are mainly imported. Here trees and vegetation outside of forests are being evaluated for economic and environmental purposes.
Interpreting the data
This broad-brushed global picture has two keys to its understanding. Both of these are noteworthy for our evaluation of the LCDS. The first is the need for readers to keep constantly in mind that the data cited above and provided by the FAO, although impressive sounding, are intrinsically weak. This weakness occurs because the national data from which the global and regional data are compiled are themselves inadequate. Indeed, I would argue that it is only because of the very high level of aggregation of these data (globally or over vast regions) that they can be given any plausibility. The margins of error in these estimates are huge, amounting I believe to 20 per cent and more. This would mean globally errors of the magnitude of 800 million hectares or more. Such a sum is more than 50 times greater than all of Guyana’s forests!
The FAO has recognised this weakness. Its report observes: “The biggest limitation for evaluating progress is weak data.” It then goes on to state: “Relatively few countries have had recent or comprehensive forest inventories.” Of course it goes without saying that the weaknesses of forest data are substantially greater in poor regions than in rich ones. This observation fits in with Guyana’s experience and therefore suggests the need for caution when interpreting FAO’s estimate of the performance/outcome of the state of Guyana’s forest cover during the period 1990-2005.
The second consideration is that the different regional outcomes/performances are in the main the product of two factors. One is the vast disparity in resources: human (skills), finance and technology, which are dedicated to sustainable forest management in the different regions.
The other is the steep qualitative differences in institutional/ organizational capacity, which exists between the different regions. This latter is partly the result of the resource difference observed. However, it is also due to the very differing levels of political will (commitment) and governance of forests exhibited across the regions.
With this background next week I shall look at the state of Guyana’s forests as portrayed in the LCDS.