BOGOTA (Reuters) – Former Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos leads the race to succeed President Alvaro Uribe in a May election after a court barred the US ally from seeking re-election, a poll said yesterday.
Santos, a close Uribe associate, garnered 23 per cent, up from 13 per cent in a survey in December, according to the February 27 poll by Ipsos Napoleon Franco and broadcast by RCN radio.
Leftist Senator Gustavo Petro, one of Uribe’s fiercest critics, led the remaining candidates with 11 percent while former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo garnered 9 per cent along with veteran politician German Vargas Lleras.
While ahead of rivals, Santos would not have enough support in the May 30 vote to avoid a second round in June. He is trying to hold together the Uribe coalition, and suggesting all parties in the alliance present a single candidate in May.
“I believe that we can maintain the coalition and even expand it,” Santos told RCN radio.
The poll surveyed 1,000 people in more than 10 cities across the country and had a 3.1 percentage margin of error.
Uribe, a close Washington ally, was barred from re-election by the Constitutional Court on Friday, meaning he will be forced to step aside after two terms that were highlighted by his crackdown on leftist guerrillas and cocaine traffickers.
As defense minister, Santos has been closely associated with Uribe’s security successes. But it could be a struggle to keep the “Uribista” coalition together as other parties within the alliance may present their own presidential candidates.
Already the Conservative Party — one of the alliance’s heavyweights — is divided over whether to break with Santos over the presidential vote. The party will hold internal elections in March to determine its candidate.
A test for Uribe’s alliance will be legislative elections on March 14 when the coalition will fight to hold its majorities in the House and the Senate despite potential splits over the issue of the presidential race.
“Santos is likely to become the man to beat at the polls, even if his presidential bid suffers under a potential disintegration of the current Uribista coalition,” IHS Global Insight analyst Christian Voelkel said.
“Potentially enduring splits within the Uribista coalition could in turn bolster the prospects of opposition candidates.”
Whoever succeeds Uribe is unlikely to steer too far from the security and pro-investment policies. Markets are already counting on stability through the next government.
Praised by many Colombians for making their country safer, Uribe managed to maintain popularity ratings of over 60 per cent even after his second term was marred by scandals over rights abuses and illegal wiretapping by state security agents.
