KHARTOUM (Reuters) – The likely election win of Sudan’s president will enrage many disgusted with his Darfur record, but the West will have to find ways to engage with him in the build-up to an even more dangerous vote.

Sudan is less than eight months away from a referendum giving the people of its south the choice whether to split off as an independent country, guaranteed under a 2005 peace deal that ended two decades of north-south civil war.

Most analysts agree embittered southerners want to leave.

Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is almost certain to win the vote after most of his rivals boycotted the ballot accusing him of fraud, wants the oil-producing region to stay.

The next months of internationally backed talks will decide whether Sudan ends up with a peaceful separation or a botched referendum and another confrontation that could dwarf Darfur.

“These elections could be as bad as Afghanistan but with such a tight timetable before the referendum I doubt anyone will insist on a rerun,” said one international source.

Many activists have already begun calling on Western powers to distance themselves from the elections, writing them off as a rigged campaign designed to vindicate a coup leader wanted by the International Criminal Court to face charges over war crimes allegedly committed in Darfur.

“The United States will have to play the leader (in saying) that this is not a legitimate election,” said Mark Lotwis, acting head of campaign group Save Darfur.

Up to now, Washington has echoed some of the concerns about the polls, but shown no sign of turning its back on Bashir and his dominant northern National Congress Party (NCP).

US Sudan envoy Scott Gration flew to Khartoum for exhaustive rounds of mediation when the boycotts began.

“We look at this election as part of an extremely important strategic process. The Carter Center is working very closely with the United States government, with Scott Gration,” former US President Jimmy Carter told Reuters in an interview as he led a team of observers in Khartoum last week.

“There are some groups that want the election to succeed and I represent one of those groups.”
‘Very frank’
Carter promised his observers’ preliminary report on the poll, due out on Saturday, would still be “very frank”.

There is a lot of work for international mediators to do in the months before the referendum, as long as they stay engaged.

Bashir has promised to accept the south’s decision if it chooses to secede. But that does not mean there is a done deal.

His government has shown an often astounding ability to release conflicting signals, frustrating any search for a fixed policy.

On Tuesday this week, the conciliatory face of the NCP, presidential advisor Ghazi Salaheddin, told foreign journalists his party was prepared to offer government positions to opposition groups after the elections. Tensions dipped.

A day later, in a classic good cop/bad cop routine, the confrontational face of the NCP, presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie, called in the same reporters to accuse the same opposition groups of plotting a “popular revolution” against the government. Tensions spiked.

There are also many agreements to be made before the referendum can take place, any of which could be used to delay the vote, an unacceptable outcome for the south.

Sticking points include the position of the north-south border, the sharing out of oil reserves and Nile river water, the apportioning of external debts and the membership of a commission to organise the plebiscite.

Bashir will hold up his election win as a vindication of his rule and a rebuke to the International Criminal Court, particularly if he can show support in the three Darfur states.

For many, the elections are a matter of real regret. “The immediate costs are opportunities lost — for a renewed internal process, for using the elections to assist moving Darfur out of conflict, for building trust,” said Stephen Morrison from Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Bashir’s critics will have to take comfort in the fact that the election win actually gives him no extra legal immunity against the ICC case.

There has also been some opening up of civil liberties in the build-up to the voting — newspaper censorship was lifted, opposition groups made critical statements on television and activists were given some limited freedom on the streets.

“We need to get through this election and … see whether this regime cracks down again,” said Save Darfur’s Lotwis.