Dear Editor,

While NACTA polls have been accurately predicting the outcome of general elections in Trinidad since 1995, it is very difficult at this stage to pronounce on the outcome of the May 24 general elections in spite of other polls showing a landslide victory for the opposition UNC-led Peoples Partnership coalition. The race is too close to call. The outcome may appear clearer next week during the final rounds of campaigning and NACTA polling.

So far, there is no doubt that a majority of voters favour Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar as prime minister over incumbent Patrick Manning, and a majority of voters also support the opposition Peoples Partnership coalition. However, this does not translate into a majority of seats for the UNC in the first-past-the-post electoral system which is quite different from ours in Guyana.

The 41 seats in parliament are elected by constituencies and so far the PNM has 19 in the bag and the UNC 18 with four seats too difficult to predict. These numbers could change over time because some of the seats are quite close. A party needs 21 seats to form the government. So the outcome is uncertain although other pollsters and political analysts disagree with my prognosis of a close contest.

A UWI poll has an overwhelming majority of voters favouring Kamla as prime minister while the NACTA poll has a 4% advantage favouring Kamla. Last week the poll had 58% of the voters backing the UNC and 17% supporting the PNM, a whopping 38% difference. The NACTA poll shows a 7% gap with the UNC in the lead. The PNM is expected to have no less than 40% of the votes. The UNC is expected to cross 50%.  Almost 10% of the voters are still undecided.

In terms of seats, the UNC is defending 15 seats and although they are facing pressure in one seat, they will hold on to all 15, increasing voter support in all of them. The PNM is defending 26 seats and will at a minimum lose three seats. The PNM will see a decline in support in all of its seats brought about by an anti-Manning sentiment. Many PNM supporters want to see Manning go for his several blunders and are calling for an early leadership election. Right now the PNM is ahead with 19 seats but it could also lose at least one seat in Tobago. So the PNM could drop to 18 seats. However, this does not appear likely at this time and the party looks more set to hold on to a minimum of 20 seats which would mean that the coalition could walk away with the required 21 seats.  But it could go either way.

Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram