Dear Editor,
The latest findings from the NACTA opinion tracking poll up till Thursday show a dead heat, making it difficult to call the elections although pollsters and political analysts have come out predicting a victory for one or the other party.  Most analysts now say the opposition UNC will win narrowly.  Virtually all the polls are giving different findings. The race has see-sawed over the last six weeks with the opposition UNC coalition taking the lead not only in votes but in seats as well. It retained the lead in all opinion polls until two weeks ago when the race began to tighten up.  Last week, the UNC coalition began to lose the momentum giving the surging ruling PNM the lead.  This week, the race seems to be swinging back in the UNC’s favour.  But it is still too close to call.

All the polls have the UNC in the lead in voter support.  The Ansa McAl UWI poll has the UNC leading by 22% (down from a whopping 40% lead three weeks ago) while the NACTA poll gives the UNC a 10% (52% to 42%). NACTA has projected a 55% to 45% outcome with the UNC alliance gaining some 90,000 more votes than the PNM. While the opposition will capture more votes, it is the seats that matter in the first past the post system, and here the race is tight.

There are 41 seats up for grabs.  The PNM is defending 26 seats while the UNC is defending 15 seats. The UNC is on course to retain all 15 and wrest at least four seats from the PNM.

Three seats are very close and could go either way.  This makes it a 19-19-tie with three seats holding the balance, according to the NACTA projection.  Another UWI poll has the PNM with 22 seats and UNC 16 seats with 3 seats very close.  The Ansa poll gives the UNC a large victory. The UNC says their poll, conducted by the Obama people, give them up to 28 seats. The PNM says their poll has them leading in 27 seats.

The UNC is more likely to get a swing in its favour than the PNM as Indians have indicated they want the PNM out and will be voting with a vengeance. Some African and Mixed voters are fed up with the Prime Minister and want to see him out. A swing of 10% of African and/or Mixed voters towards the UNC would upset a lot of seats by the narrowest of margins. So far, there has not been a swing in the UNC’s favour although UNC leader, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has been garnering 5% of the African votes and even more Mixed votes. She is doing well among female Africans and Mixed. If she continues to climb, the PNM could see several of its traditional seats tumble.

So far, the PNM is assured of 18 seats if voting is on traditional lines. The UNC is also assured of 18 seats. And that leaves 5 seats that could swing either way.  A party needs 21 seats to form the government.

Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram