Dear Editor,
No pollster or political analyst predicted the exact outcome of Trinidad May 24 elections. No one envisioned a 29-12 result. Everyone, including the financial backers and political strategists, saw the outcome as close, at least in the number of seats projected for each party. The NACTA poll projected the opposition winning the votes by at least 10%, but a closer contest in seats.
NACTA stated it would take a tsunami for the PNM to lose its safe seats and it appeared there was a small tsunami. I indicated that a tsunami had not been reached by May 22 but it was getting there based on the last-minute swing being experienced by the coalition. Andy Johnson of TV 6 Trinidad can vouch for that statement I made on the Saturday before the election.
Everywhere I travelled in Trinidad, people were asking how come the pollsters and analysts got it all wrong. Why did everyone fail to see a rout?
The NACTA poll, which I conducted, did say in repeated columns published in NY, Trinidad and Guyana, that the opposition coalition was making voter gains in all seats and would come close to toppling the ruling PNM in several of its “safe” seats. In addition, NACTA reported the coalition was ahead in five marginal seats in Trinidad, would retain its 15 seats and would win at least one seat in Tobago giving it a total of 21 to win the election.
The poll also reported on the Sunday evening before the election that the coalition was gaining in two other marginals but still behind. As it turned out, the PNM lost all seven marginals by big numbers (more than what any poll projected) and also lost both seats in Tobago. That gave the party 24 seats. So how did the coalition get the other 5 safe PNM seats (from the corridor)?
While the coalition was saying there would be no safe seats for the PNM, that was prompted more by campaign talk than rational predictions or expectations, and in fact in private spokespersons for the coalition and PNM were telling me they expected a narrow victory. However, the candidates from both sides were telling me they would win as per their canvassing numbers. The NACTA poll findings showed close contests in the five safe PNM seats on the corridor as well as close contests in the three Diego Martin seats and Point Fortin and La Brea seats. But as I stated on TV on the Saturday before the election, I expected the PNM to win them all unless there was a huge swing or low PNM turnout on election day. I indicated it would take a huge swing for the opposition to defeat the PNM in its safe seats. Other pollsters and analysts on TV did not even expect close contests and completely and totally ruled out the possibility of opposition wins in any of them.
As it was, the PNM voter turnout was low compared with the last general election, and the PNM suffered a rout, losing its five safe seats and coming close to losing four more.
It should be noted that the PNM lost the five safe seats narrowly and it came about primarily because of abstention of PNM supporters who wanted to punish Manning for calling an early election and for his extravagant spending and leadership arrogance.
So as it is, most of the polls were off target, including NACTA. But I did say if one PNM safe seat falls, others would fall also. I did say if the coalition wins the Tunapuna seat, it would win neighbouring seats. As it turned out, the coalition won Tunapuna and with it five other safe PNM seats that were attached in a line.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
